These days, the Fairfax market can be summed up in one line: inventory is up, buyers are down, and prices are holding steady more than expected.

Let's start from the reference point. The rental figures for October have been released, but the sales closing statistics are still from September as of my last check. You should check the October sales figures around mid-month.

Starting with rentals, according to Apartment List's October data, the median rent in Fairfax County is $2,382. For a one-bedroom, it's $2,041, and for a two-bedroom, it's $2,364.

In Fairfax City, the overall median rent is $2,266, which is a 1.1% decrease from last October. A one-bedroom is $1,903, and a two-bedroom is $2,177.

The surrounding areas are generally similar. Centreville is at $2,446 (-0.1%), Reston at $2,382 (-0.4%), Herndon at $2,189 (-0.8%), and Fairfax Oaks at $2,374 (-0.9%).

An exception is Tysons, where the median rent is $2,642, up 3.3% on its own.

The peak for county median rent was $2,472 in June 2025. It's currently down $90 from there, but still $411 higher than the pre-COVID figure of $1,971.

There is room for negotiation. FFXnow reports that many landlords are offering concessions, and according to Apartment List, homes contracted in October were on the market for an average of 36 days.

However, the numbers vary by source. Zumper reported the median rent in Fairfax at $2,700 as of November 3, marking a 10% increase from the previous year. It's safer to view these figures alongside actual listing prices due to differing aggregation methods.

In September, there were 897 county closing transactions, which is below last year's 953 and the five-year average of 930.

However, the overall average price rose to $903,940, a 3% increase. The average for single-family homes is $1,220,641, up 2%.

The condo market is different. The average price is $421,643, down 10.3%. The average for attached homes, including townhouses, is $569,805, which saw a slight decline of 0.8%.

The average price can fluctuate significantly depending on which homes sold. So, it's premature to conclude that condo prices have dropped by 10%.

As of September 30, active listings were at 2,326, a 36% increase, while pending contracts were at 921, down from last year.

Still, homes that are selling are doing so close to their asking prices. The time to contract was 26 days, and the sale price was 98.3% of the original asking price, both consistent with last year. However, this is longer than the five-year average of 22 days.

Fairfax City saw 25 transactions, down from 40 last year, with the average single-family home price at $823,411, a 7.4% decrease. It's difficult to determine trends from just one month due to the low transaction volume.

Expanding the scope to NVAR jurisdiction in Northern Virginia shows similar trends. Transactions were down 7.5% at 1,250, and new contracts decreased by 16.2%, while the median price rose by 4.2% to $744,950.

Inventory in this area increased by 30.7% to 3,477 listings. Condos and townhouses rose by 49.7%, while single-family homes increased by 5.7%. The inventory stands at 2.5 months, still far from the balanced market benchmark of 5-6 months.

Why has it cooled down? Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, pointed to interest rates as the cause rather than federal government cuts. It was somewhat unexpected since discussions about federal layoffs often come first in this region.

Looking at interest rates makes it understandable. As of October 29, Freddie Mac reported the average for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.24%, and 6.60% for a 15-year. A year ago, the 30-year fixed was at 6.17%.

If I calculate a $600,000 loan over 30 years at 7.24%, the monthly payment would be $4,089, while at 6.17%, it would be $3,663. That's a $426 difference even before taxes and insurance.

Future outlooks are mixed. Sturtevant mentioned that prices in some areas could fall below last year's levels this fall, but she does not expect a significant drop.

The field is more cautious. In a September survey by Virginia Realtors, 44% of the 511 respondents expected price declines by year-end, while 20% anticipated increases, and 33% expected no significant changes.

Taxes should also be considered. The county property tax rate was reduced from $1.1225 per $100 to $1.12 for FY2027. However, the average residential assessment for 2026 is projected to rise by 3.99%, leading to an estimated $337 increase in the average homeowner's burden, according to the county.

This means that just because the tax rate has decreased, the bill won't necessarily be lower. In Fairfax City, the separate jurisdiction tax rate is $1.0725, so check which jurisdiction your home address belongs to first.

For buyers, there are plenty of options right now, especially for condos and townhouses. However, with interest rates in the 7% range, it's wise to calculate monthly payments first.

For sellers, the fact that prices are still holding is advantageous. However, with increasing competition, setting a high asking price and waiting a long time may be riskier than before.

Tenants should inquire not only about rental amounts but also about conditions like free rent periods.

If I were you, I would look at the number of contracts and inventory when the October sales figures come out, rather than just the average price. If inventory continues to rise without a recovery in contracts, the negotiating power will shift more toward buyers.

The data comes from MarketStats by ShowingTime, NVAR (FFXnow, Virginia Business reports), Apartment List, Zumper, Freddie Mac, and county announcements, verified up to early November.