"How much will housing prices be if I move to Fairfax?" This is a question I often hear from those considering a move to the area.

At the beginning of 2021, the median home price in Fairfax was around $580,000, but it has now risen to about $760,000. Over the past five years, this represents an increase of approximately 31%.

Looking at it year by year, from 2021 to the first half of 2022, the demand for larger homes surged due to low interest rates and the rise of remote work after the pandemic, causing prices to jump quickly. However, starting in the second half of 2022 and into 2023, mortgage rates rose sharply, leading to a decrease in buying activity and a noticeable slowdown in price increases. From 2024 onward, we are seeing a pattern of gradual increases and stabilization amid a continued shortage of listings.

Compared to the national average cumulative increase of 35-45% during the same period, Fairfax's increase is somewhat lower. This can be attributed to the fact that the area already had high price levels, which limited its potential for further increases.

Factors influencing prices include the reputation of Fairfax County public schools, a stable employment base with George Mason University and federal agencies and IT companies concentrated in the area, and a lack of new development sites leading to transactions primarily involving existing homes. It is also true that even strong demand was somewhat tempered by purchasing power during the period of rising interest rates.

Looking ahead, a cautious perspective seems necessary. Given the steady demand from school districts, the likelihood of a significant correction appears low, but considering the already high price levels, a gradual increase rather than a sharp rise is expected.

For Korean families considering buying in Fairfax due to school districts, the first question that comes to mind is likely, "Is now the right time to buy, or should I wait a little longer?" Since we are not in a period of rapid price increases, but rather a stable time, this may be the right moment to compare listings comfortably and negotiate. I recommend carefully considering your financial plans and commuting conditions before making a decision.