The median home price in Fairfax, VA for 2026 is between approximately $717,000 and $760,000. Are you anxious? For those wondering, "Have home prices gone up or down this year?" I will provide the conclusion based on the latest market data. According to Redfin, the average median sale price for the three months leading up to April 2026 is $717,000, which is about a 2.8% decrease compared to the same period last year, while Movoto recorded $760,000 for the same period. Both data sets are based on the City of Fairfax, and when expanded to the broader Fairfax County, the median price as of May 2026 is $813,000, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the previous year.

You might be wondering why there is such a difference. Fairfax City and Fairfax County are different administrative areas. The County includes high-end residential areas like McLean, Great Falls, Vienna, and Oakton, which raises the median price. Even though they share the name "Fairfax," the data can vary by hundreds of thousands of dollars depending on which area you look at, so it's essential to check the regional scope when comparing listings. In the actual market, there are significant variations by neighborhood, so analyzing by zip code with a local agent is the most accurate approach.

The inventory trends for 2026 are also noteworthy. As of the third week of June 2026, the number of active listings in Fairfax County has increased by 15% compared to the same time last year. In January, the inventory increased by 21.1% year-over-year according to NVAR (Northern Virginia Association of Realtors), and in February, it rose by 11.8%. The inventory of single-family homes is projected to increase by 35.8% compared to 2025, and townhome inventory is expected to rise by 31.5%. An increase in supply means more options for buyers.

So, where do mortgage rates stand? As of 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6%. Compared to the 7-8% range of 2023-2024, this is a relief, but for those who remember the 3% rates before the pandemic, it still feels burdensome. Meanwhile, the Months of Supply increased slightly from 1.1 months in January 2026 to 1.23 months in February, but it remains far below the balanced market benchmark of 6 months, indicating a continued supply shortage.

• Median sale price in Fairfax City (April 2026): $717,000 - $760,000 (Redfin / Movoto)
• Median sale price in Fairfax County (May 2026): $813,000, up +3.4% year-over-year (Redfin)
• Active inventory growth rate in Fairfax County (June 2026): +15% year-over-year (Bella Casa Partners)
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: approximately 6% (NVAR 2026 forecast)
• Months of Supply: 1.23 months (February 2026, NVAR)
• Single-family home inventory forecast: +35.8% year-over-year (NVAR 2026 prediction)

In summary, the 2026 Fairfax housing market is in a "seller's advantage but easing" phase. While inventory is increasing and prices are slightly adjusting in some areas, the overall supply remains critically low, and the demand base in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area is strong, making a sharp decline unlikely. Buyers are gaining a bit more negotiating power, while sellers need to be more cautious with pricing. In the second half of 2026, with mortgage rates around 6% and limited supply, prices are likely to either rise slightly or remain stable.

(Sources: Redfin, Movoto, NVAR (Northern Virginia Association of Realtors), Bella Casa Partners Fairfax County Inventory Tracker, 2026 data / This article is not investment or legal advice, and it is recommended to consult a professional before making any actual contracts.)