To summarize the Riverside market this fall: home prices have dipped slightly, rents have remained mostly unchanged, and interest rates have risen back to the 7% range.

For tenants, the dilemma is whether to renew their lease now or wait a bit longer, while landlords may be wondering if they can raise rents this time. Today, I will focus on numbers that might answer those two questions.

First, let me clarify the reference point. The county sales statistics from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) released on October 19 are the most recent data available for September.

October sales statistics typically come out in mid-November, so as I write this, they are not yet available. For rents, I used figures from Apartment List, which has incorporated data up to October, and the interest rates are based on Freddie Mac's weekly survey.

The median sale price for single-family homes in Riverside County in September was $620,000. This is a 2.1% decrease from August's $632,990 and down 0.6% compared to $624,000 a year ago.

Compared to the summer, the difference is more pronounced. In July, the median price in the same county had risen to $649,000.

However, it is difficult to say that prices are collapsing. The median can fluctuate based on which homes sell in a given month, so it is premature to determine a trend based on just one month's decline.

What I found more noteworthy is the transaction volume. In September, Riverside County's transaction volume decreased by 6.4% from August and by 12.7% compared to September of last year.

In comparison, the overall transaction volume in Southern California dropped by 9.1% from last year, indicating that Riverside's decline is more significant. This suggests that potential buyers are hesitating.

The speed at which homes are selling has also slowed down. The median days on the market increased to 42 days, compared to 40 days in August and 38 days in the same month last year.

The inventory index, which indicates how long it would take to sell all available listings at the current pace, has risen to 4.4 months. This is up from 4.0 months in August and 4.2 months in September of last year, indicating a slight shift toward buyers.

For comparison, it is also helpful to look at statewide numbers. The median price for single-family homes in California was $899,720 in September, while Southern California's median was $895,000, reflecting a 3.0% increase from last year.

While Southern California's average is rising, Riverside County has seen a slight decline. It appears that demand from the coastal areas is taking a breather in light of rising interest rates.

Now, let's discuss interest rates. The average 30-year fixed rate based on Freddie Mac's data was 6.71% on September 3, but jumped to 7.28% on October 1.

It rose to 7.40% on October 8 and 15, then slightly decreased to 7.32% on the 22nd and 7.24% on the 29th. I was honestly surprised by how much it fluctuated in just one month.

C.A.R. also cited rising interest rates and affordability issues as reasons for the slowdown in September transactions. The average rate in September was 6.86%, higher than 6.35% in September of last year.

Now, regarding rents, which tenants are most curious about. According to Apartment List's October data, the overall median rent in Riverside was $1,821.

This is a 0.2% decrease from September, essentially holding steady, but up 1.3% from a year ago. The overall median rent in the Riverside metro area was $1,880, with an annual increase of 2.1%, indicating that the city is slightly more stable.

It's worth noting that rent figures can vary significantly between sites due to different aggregation methods, so it's more accurate to look at trends rather than a single number.

In summary for tenants, this is not a market where rents are skyrocketing. When a renewal offer comes, it's advisable to check the prices of similar listings nearby, and if the proposed increase is larger than the market trend, it may be worth negotiating.

Also, be aware of California state law (AB 1482) regarding rent caps. For applicable properties, the maximum increase allowed in a year is the greater of 5% plus the local inflation rate or 10%.

However, there are exceptions for buildings less than 15 years old or for individual owner-occupied single-family homes that meet certain notification requirements. It's advisable to check your lease's notice language and state tenant resources to see if your property qualifies.

From a landlord's perspective, the numbers can be a bit harsh. In a market where listings linger, tenants have more options, so it often makes more sense to reduce vacancy periods rather than push for unreasonable rent increases.

Based on the median rent of $1,821, having a unit vacant for just one month means losing that entire amount. If you have a reliable tenant, a slight increase with a long-term strategy is definitely worth considering.

For those contemplating a purchase, I would say this is a time when negotiation opportunities may arise. As the selling period extends, sellers are more likely to agree to cover closing costs or adjust prices.

However, with interest rates at 7%, you must calculate monthly payments based on current rates. Planning to refinance later if rates drop should be considered a bonus rather than a guarantee.

When the October sales statistics are released in mid-November, three points to watch will be whether the median price holds at $620,000, if the decline in transaction volume stops, and if the selling period lengthens.

In my opinion, Riverside is not a market for hasty decisions but rather one for careful comparisons. I would recommend that tenants evaluate renewal terms, landlords focus on vacancy management, and buyers concentrate on negotiations.