To summarize the Tenafly market in October in one line: inventory has noticeably increased, the speed of sales has slowed, and prices have not yet significantly dropped.

However, there is something to note first. As of early November, the official counts from major sites like Redfin and Zillow are mostly only available up to September.

Therefore, this article is based on Redfin's September figures, with October data highlighted separately where available.

According to Redfin, the median sale price in Tenafly over the past three months until September was $1,549,262, which is a 6.3% increase compared to the same period last year.

In the same report, the number of transactions in September was 44, which is nearly the same as last year's 42. This indicates that the transaction volume itself has not decreased.

What's noteworthy is the time frame. The median days on market for sales is 95 days, which is 21 days longer than last year's 74 days.

The atmosphere on the ground feels similar. While there are people at open houses, the number of homes receiving offers right away on the first weekend has definitely decreased.

The ratio of actual sale prices to listing prices is 101.4%, which is 1.8 points lower than a year ago. On average, homes are still selling for slightly more than the asking price.

The percentage of homes sold above the asking price is 46.5%, down 5.8 points. Conversely, the percentage of listings that have reduced their prices is 13.2%, up 1.7 points.

Redfin's competition index is 51 out of 100, indicating a somewhat competitive market. While seller advantage has diminished, it is still too early to call it a buyer's market.

Some October figures have been released. RealtyTrac reports that the number of Tenafly listings in October is 147, which is a 36.11% increase from 108 in October of last year.

According to the same data, the median asking price in October has risen to the $2 million range, while the median sale price is reported to be in the $1.3 million range.

However, RealtyTrac's monthly transaction numbers are based on a small sample size and can vary widely, so I don't place much significance on the numbers themselves, only the direction.

Still, the signals of increasing inventory are indicated by Redfin's sales duration and price reduction rates. This is a trend that cannot be ignored.

So why has the speed of sales slowed? I believe the biggest reason is interest rates.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.71% in the first week of September to 7.03% in the last week of September.

In October, it reached 7.40% for two consecutive weeks on the 8th and 15th, before slightly dropping to 7.24% on October 29. A year ago, it was 6.17%.

In high-priced neighborhoods like Tenafly, most loans are jumbo loans, so a 1% point difference in interest rates significantly impacts monthly payments. It's understandable that buyers are hesitant.

Conditions vary even within Tenafly. Large single-family homes in East Hill and older Colonials downtown attract different buyer demographics.

High-end listings with a large cash component are less affected by interest rates, while families looking to buy their first home are much more sensitive to rates. This difference can be obscured when looking at statistics for the entire neighborhood.

I also looked at rental prices. According to Zumper's October data, the median rent in Tenafly is $4,850, which is down 8% from a month ago and up 25% from a year ago.

However, the average rent for three-bedroom units is $3,400, which is lower than the $3,472 for two-bedroom units. This indicates that there are fewer rental listings available, causing the numbers to fluctuate.

Tenafly rentals often come in the form of single-family homes or townhouses rather than apartment complexes. The average can swing significantly depending on which homes are on the market that month.

Therefore, those looking for rentals should compare the conditions of a few actual listings rather than relying solely on the site averages for a more accurate picture.

If you are currently looking at homes, I recommend checking how long the property has been on the market, and whether the price has been reduced at any point.

Next, look at the actual sale prices of homes that have sold in the same block or school district within the last three months. The numbers from neighboring homes are more relevant than the neighborhood average.

Finally, get a new pre-approval rate for your mortgage. The terms you received in September may differ from the current conditions.

From a seller's perspective, if there is no response within the first two weeks, it may be wise to reconsider the price. In a market where sales periods are lengthening, properties that take longer to sell become less favorable.

My assessment is this: Tenafly has strong demand due to its school district, so it is not a neighborhood where prices will collapse quickly, but it has entered a phase where buyers can find negotiation opportunities.

Once the official October figures are released, I will check again to see if the sales duration and price reduction rates have increased. These two numbers will likely be the first indicators of the market direction in the coming months.