As lease expirations approach, tenants receive renewal notices, and landlords ponder how much to increase the rent. In early November, both parties in Omaha are curious about how the market performed in October.

First, it's important to note that official statistics for the month of October are mostly not yet available. Therefore, I've included sources and reference points for each number.

Let's start with rent. According to PadMapper, as of October 4, the median rent in Omaha was $995 for a one-bedroom and $1,379 for a two-bedroom.

From the same data, studios were at $900, down 0.88% from the previous period, and one-bedrooms decreased by 0.50%. The changes were small, but the trend was downward.

Apartment List uses a different aggregation method. The latest report available, from May, showed a one-bedroom at $1,086, a two-bedroom at $1,328, with an annual increase of 1.9%.

It's problematic to mix these two numbers for comparison. PadMapper reflects the asking prices of newly listed properties, while Apartment List is based on its own sample, resulting in different values even for the same period.

We also need to look at supply. CBRE's report for Q1 2026 indicated that the vacancy rate for multifamily housing in Omaha was 8.0%.

With this level of vacancies, tenants have room to negotiate. Simply checking the leasing conditions of nearby new developments before renewing can provide leverage.

However, that doesn't mean rent is easy to manage. According to a June report by WOWT, 47% of tenants in the Omaha area are paying more than 30% of their income on rent, based on the city's 2025 affordable housing report.

Now, let's discuss the sales market. Redfin's Omaha city page shows a median sale price of $286,863 as of September, which is a 2.5% increase from a year ago.

The atmosphere in the first half of the year was somewhat different. Redfin's aggregate for January to June showed a median sale price of $330,948, with an annual increase of 5.2%.

The city and the metropolitan area have different scopes, so the prices themselves cannot be directly compared. However, the trend of the growth rate dropping from the 5% range to the 2% range is clearly evident.

The background to this is interest rates. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.24% as of October 29.

This is down from 7.32% the previous week, but over 1 percentage point higher than the same time last year when it was 6.17%. At the beginning of October, rates even reached as high as 7.4%.

With these rates, demand that was shifting from renting to home buying takes a pause. This demand remains in the rental market, preventing rents from collapsing significantly.

One local issue to watch in October is the development at 25th and Center in South Omaha. The plan is to demolish the vacant former Salvation Army building and construct 198 affordable housing units.

According to WOWT, this will consist of 180 apartment units and 18 townhomes for larger families. The developer has requested up to $3,613,528 in TIF (Tax Increment Financing).

This TIF proposal was included in the city council's consent agenda on October 20. I have not yet confirmed the final outcome, so it's best to check the city council meeting minutes directly for accuracy.

This project is noteworthy due to a TIF policy change passed by the city council on September 1 by a vote of 5 to 2. The new policy requires that any project receiving TIF after demolishing housing must replace the number of bedrooms lost with affordable housing.

Another point of interest is the plumbing code revision. Local media outlet The Reader reported on October 28 that the city council is expected to vote in November on a plumbing code change that could lower housing construction costs.

These changes in supply won't immediately alter rents this winter. However, they are factors that will influence supply in the coming years, making them worth monitoring from an investment perspective.

So, how should tenants proceed? Upon receiving a renewal notice, the first step is to check the current asking prices for new listings in the same complex and size.

If the new asking price is lower than the renewal offer, you can use that information to negotiate a smaller increase. In a market with an 8% vacancy rate, this is not an unreasonable request.

The landlord's calculations are a bit different. If they insist on a $50 monthly increase and end up with one month of vacancy, that loss could exceed the total increase for the year.

Therefore, in a market like this, a modest increase with a longer lease term is more realistic. Long-term tenants inherently save costs.

If you're considering renting in downtown Omaha, it's also wise to double-check the city's rental registration and inspection system. For specific conditions, contacting the city's Housing Enforcement department directly is the most reliable approach.

If you're contemplating a purchase, you should prioritize interest rates over prices. With price growth rates now down to the 2% range, there's less urgency to rush.

In summary, Omaha in October saw stable to slightly declining rents, a slowdown in sale price increases, and interest rates firmly in the 7% range. Once confirmed figures are released in mid-November, I plan to reassess whether this trend holds true.

In my opinion, this winter favors tenants a bit more. I recommend negotiating with the numbers in hand without rushing.