As we enter the second week of November, the New York real estate industry is buzzing. This is because brokerage firms and appraisers are starting to release their monthly reports for October this week.

However, even before all the October numbers are in, the direction of the market from last month is quite clear. We can look at the September rent report released in early October, the third-quarter sales report, and the mortgage rates that fluctuated throughout October.

First, let's look at the rent. According to the Corcoran report, the median rent for Manhattan apartments in September was $5,395 per month.

This is a 2% increase from August and a 9% increase from September of last year, marking an all-time high. The average rent also set a new record at $6,865.

Let me clarify one term. The median is the value that sits right in the middle when all contracts are lined up in order of amount.

In simple terms, even if a few ultra-expensive penthouses raise the average, the median remains largely unaffected. Therefore, when assessing market prices, it's better to look at the median first rather than the average.

In the same September in Manhattan, a report by Jonathan Miller published in The Real Deal pegged the median rent at $4,900. This is a 7.7% increase from last year and the second-highest level on record.

The difference of nearly $500 between the two figures is not due to one being incorrect. It arises from differences in which apartments are included in the tally and which contracts are used as a basis.

So, when reading reports, it's more accurate to compare numbers from the same company year over year. Both reports indicate a clear increase from last year.

The reason rents are rising is ultimately due to a lack of inventory. According to Corcoran, the vacancy rate in Manhattan for September was 1.54%.

If you're unfamiliar with vacancy rates, think of it this way: it means that out of 100 apartments, only one or two are empty and waiting for tenants.

The number of listings also decreased by 16% compared to September of last year, totaling 5,015. The Miller report states that Manhattan listings have decreased for 15 consecutive months compared to last year.

Interestingly, the level of competition is changing. According to the Miller report, the percentage of Manhattan contracts that experienced bidding wars—where multiple parties compete with higher offers—was 16%, down from 22.1% last year.

The number of contracts has also decreased in both reports compared to last year. While prices are setting records, the number of transactions is declining, which I interpret as a signal that tenants are nearing their breaking point.

Brooklyn has a slightly different atmosphere. According to Corcoran, the median rent in September was $4,300, down 2% from August but up 5% from last year.

However, new contracts totaled 1,407, which is a 10% increase from last year. The bidding war percentage in the Miller report for Brooklyn is 32.7%, double that of Manhattan.

When you compare Manhattan and Brooklyn side by side, a picture emerges. My interpretation is that as Manhattan becomes too expensive and takes a breather, some of that demand shifts to Brooklyn, creating competition there.

Queens is analyzed in the Miller report, which combines Long Island City, Astoria, Sunnyside, and Woodside. The median rent in September was $3,742, a 2.5% increase from last year, but no record was set.

Now, let's move on to home prices. According to Corcoran's third-quarter Manhattan sales report, the median sale price was $1.25 million.

This is a 4% increase from the same quarter last year and the highest for the third quarter. The number of transactions was 3,625, the highest third-quarter total since 2022.

However, this figure is based on closings that occurred from July to September. Actual contracts were signed several months earlier, so this number reflects the atmosphere from spring and early summer.

The most important variable to consider when reading the October market is interest rates. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was in the 6.6% range throughout August.

However, on October 1, it surpassed 7% at 7.28%, and on October 8 and 15, it reached 7.40%. It then gradually decreased, landing at 7.18% in the announcement on November 5.

This means that for the entire month of October, rates were above 7%. For buyers taking out loans, this created an environment where it was easier to postpone contracts, as the monthly payments would increase for the same house.

Therefore, in the October report, I want to focus on two things: how much the number of sales contracts has decreased and whether the demand that was intended for buying homes has shifted to renting, pushing prices even higher.

If you want to check for yourself, you can view the monthly rent report on the Corcoran website, the Elliman report on the Miller Samuel website, and the monthly market report on the StreetEasy blog. All three are available for free.

If you're facing a lease renewal right now, I believe negotiating is more advantageous than moving. With such low vacancy rates, finding a new place means dealing with competition and additional moving costs.

If you're considering buying, it won't hurt to wait a few more weeks to see if rates drop back below 7%. Once the October numbers are out, I will summarize the differences by company again.