Last week, I received a call from a couple I know. They are renting out a three-bedroom single-family home in Victorville and wanted to know how much they could raise the rent during the lease renewal early next year.

In the same week, another person shared the opposite concern. They were wondering if it might be better to buy a home instead of continuing to pay rent.

Looking at the October market numbers, the direction of the answers becomes somewhat clear. Today, I will go through those numbers in order.

First, let's look at sales. According to data compiled by a local broker from CRMLS statistics, the median sale price for single-family homes in Victorville in October 2026 was $437,450.

This is a decrease of 2.8% from September's $450,000. However, compared to $420,000 in October 2025, it is up 4.2%.

It's premature to conclude that home prices have dropped based on just one month's numbers. The median sale price over the last 12 months was $440,000, which is only a 0.2% increase compared to the previous 12 months.

Recent market trends show that prices are stagnant, while transaction volumes fluctuate. The number of transactions in October was 104, down from 123 in September.

Interestingly, the speed of sales has changed. The median market stay for homes sold in October was 26 days, shorter than the 29 days in September and last October.

As of November 3, there were 418 listings, and 136 homes were under contract. The inventory is estimated to be about four months' worth, indicating a balanced market without a significant tilt toward buyers or sellers.

The median listing price in October was $449,995. The actual sale prices differ by more than $10,000, suggesting that buyers do not have to accept the asking prices as they are.

Now, let's consider interest rates. According to Freddie Mac's survey, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.24% for the week of October 29 and 7.18% for the week of November 5.

Buying a $440,000 home at a rate in the 7% range means the monthly burden is not light. This is why I suggested to the person considering buying that they should first run the numbers.

Now, let's look at rents. According to RentCafe, the average rent for apartments in Victorville as of October 31 was $1,720.

This is a 3.45% increase from $1,662 a year ago. One-bedroom apartments are at $1,504, two-bedrooms at $1,734, and three-bedrooms at $2,206.

Single-family homes have a different situation. From the same MLS data, the median rent for 213 lease agreements over the past 12 months was $2,499 per month.

Returning to the initial question, how much can they raise the rent? The California Tenant Protection Act, commonly referred to as AB 1482, serves as the guideline.

This law caps annual increases at the lower of 5% plus the local inflation rate or 10%. I recommend checking the state government's published table for the Inland Empire region for figures applicable after August 1, 2026.

Not all homes are subject to this cap. Buildings less than 15 years old and single-family homes owned by individuals (not corporations) can be exempt if the lease agreement includes a notice of exemption.

The couple's home is also a privately owned single-family home, so we needed to check if this notice was included in their lease. If it's not, they must adhere to the legal cap.

It's also easy to overlook the notification period. Under California law, if the increase is 10% or less, written notice must be given 30 days in advance; if it exceeds 10%, 90 days' notice is required.

The legally permissible range and what the market will accept are separate matters. If apartment rent is rising at around 3%, significantly increasing the rent on single-family homes could lead to vacancies.

I advised the couple to adjust the rent by 3-4% based on market rates and to focus on retaining good tenants. A month of vacancy can erase a year's worth of rent increases.

For tenants, I recommend checking the calculations upon receiving a rent increase notice. Just verifying whether the increase over the past 12 months exceeds the legal cap and whether the notification period was followed can create room for negotiation.

For those considering buying a home, it's important to remember that there's no rush in the current market. Prices have hardly risen over the past year, and there's a gap between asking prices and sale prices.

One more thing to note is that the October figures may change slightly due to late transaction reports. It's safer to look at trends over three months or twelve months rather than just one month's numbers.

Determining rent caps or exemption conditions can vary by property, so it's best to consult with a local tenant advisory agency or a real estate attorney with your lease in hand.

From my decades of experience in this field, I've learned that in quieter markets, those who pay close attention to the numbers tend to come out ahead. It seems that Victorville is currently such a market.

The data referenced comes from local broker compilations based on CRMLS (October 2026, with listings as of November 3), RentCafe (as of October 31), and Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey (released November 5).