Numbers for October are starting to come in, and the DC market shows different trends for rent and sales. Rent has remained nearly the same as in September, while sales are more influenced by transaction volume and interest rates than by prices.

First, it's important to note that the official October home price report from Bright MLS typically comes out in mid-November, so this article is based on data available up to early November.

Let's start with rent. According to a report from Apartment List released in early November, the overall median rent in DC is $2,169.

The report considers this figure to be nearly the same as last month, and it is 0.1% higher than a year ago. Essentially, it's stable.

Data from Zumper shows a similar trend. As of November 7, the average rent for a one-bedroom is $2,158, which is a 1% decrease from the previous month, with no significant change from a year ago.

The two-bedroom average is $2,875, unchanged from last month but down 3% from a year ago.

The difference in figures between the two companies is due to their methods of calculation. Apartment List uses median values, while Zumper uses average listing prices, so it's more appropriate to compare the trends rather than the exact amounts.

The trend is the same. The rent that increased during the summer moving season is now stabilizing in the fall, aligning with the seasonal patterns that repeat around this time each year.

For tenants, this is not a bad time. Since rent has hardly increased over the past year, it might be worth negotiating the increase for winter renewals.

Now, let's look at sales. According to the Bright MLS September report, the overall median sale price in the DC metro area is $610,000, which is a 1.6% increase from a year ago.

While prices have held steady, the number of new pending contracts has decreased by 17.1% compared to a year ago. The title of the report indicated that the market has stalled as fall arrives.

When looking only at the inner city, the numbers change. According to calculations from a local brokerage team based on Bright MLS raw data, there were 393 transactions in DC from September 9 to October 8, with a median sale price of $700,000.

Compared to the same period last year, transactions decreased by 15.5%, while the median price increased by 6.1%. When transactions decline and the proportion of expensive homes increases, the median price can appear to rise, so it's wise to view this increase with some caution.

The speed of sales remains relatively fast. During the same period, the median days on market was 23 days, and the average sale-to-list price ratio was 98.16%.

As of October 9, there were a total of 3,052 active and coming soon listings. Among these, condos accounted for nearly half, with 1,487 listings.

When comparing the metro area to the city, the differences become apparent. The metro area shows a gradual increase around the $610,000 mark, while sales in DC city are decreasing around the $700,000 mark, with prices holding steady.

So, what changed from September to October? The biggest variable was interest rates.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 7% at 7.03% on September 24, and rose to 7.40% on October 8 and 15.

Since then, it has gradually decreased to 7.32% on October 22, 7.24% on October 29, and 7.18% on November 5.

In monetary terms, this difference is significant. If you buy a $700,000 home and put down 20%, borrowing $560,000 at 7.03%, your monthly principal and interest payment would be $3,737.

If the same loan is at 7.40%, the payment rises to $3,877, an additional $140 per month. This amount does not include property taxes, insurance, or condo fees.

October was the month with the largest difference in this regard. Many people who were looking at homes in September likely took a pause, so it wouldn't be surprising if the official statistics for October show a further decrease in contracts.

Observing the market over time, there have been several instances where when interest rates rise, prices do not immediately drop; instead, transactions tend to dry up first, with prices responding several months later.

Therefore, the key to understanding the current DC market is to focus on transaction volume and inventory rather than just prices. If inventory builds up and days on market start to lengthen, that should be seen as a signal for price adjustments.

When comparing buyers and renters, the situation looks like this. Rent is stable, so there is less urgency, while sales are at the beginning of a decline in interest rates, gradually shifting negotiation power toward buyers.

If I were looking for a home right now, I would start by checking condo listings. With a larger inventory, there is relatively more room for negotiation on price and closing costs.

However, it's crucial to check the management fees and the financial status of the building for condos. High management fees could be a greater burden than a 0.3% increase in interest rates.

I will provide an update on the official figures for October as soon as the Bright MLS report is released. The first numbers to look for will be whether new pending contracts have decreased compared to September and how much inventory has increased.

The sources referenced include the Apartment List November rent report, Zumper data as of November 7, the Bright MLS September report, and Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. The 30-day tally is based on calculations from brokerage teams using Bright MLS data and is not an official announcement from Bright MLS.