To summarize the Memphis market in October in one line: rents are stable, home prices are slightly catching their breath, and interest rates remain burdensome. Let's go through the numbers confirmed as of early November.

First, the rent. According to Apartment List's November report, the median rent for the entire city of Memphis is recorded at $1,063.

It decreased by 0.1% over the month of October and is 0.4% lower compared to a year ago. It can essentially be considered stable.

By room size, a one-bedroom averages $888, while a two-bedroom averages $1,006. The national median rent in the same report is $1,384, making Memphis 23.2% lower than the national average.

This difference may feel quite significant for those considering moving from other states. However, just because rents are low doesn't mean you should take neighborhood selection lightly. Memphis has considerable regional disparities even within the same city.

The fact that rents haven't increased for over a year suggests that tenants have room for negotiation. If it's time for lease renewal, it's advisable to check the market rates of nearby listings rather than simply accepting the proposed increase.

On the other hand, this trend isn't entirely welcome news for those who invested with the expectation of rental income. While rents remain unchanged, if insurance or management fees increase, the actual yield gradually diminishes.

Next, let's look at the sales market. The Memphis Area Association of Realtors (MAAR) typically releases monthly statistics around mid-next month, so the transaction statistics for October will be available in mid-November. The latest figures available are from September, announced on October 14.

The total number of transactions in Shelby, Fayette, and Tipton counties for September was 1,257, down 13.7% from 1,456 in September of last year.

The median transaction price was $225,000, down 2.2% from $230,000 in the same month last year. The average transaction price also decreased by 2.3% to $278,235.

With 1,254 transactions in August, there was virtually no change compared to the previous month. The MAAR president briefly assessed that it was similar to August.

Looking at the cumulative figures from the beginning of the year to September, the picture changes slightly. Cumulative transactions totaled 10,807, down 7.4%, but the cumulative median price rose to $230,000, an increase of 2.2%.

Transactions are down, but prices are not collapsing significantly, which is a typical sign of a wait-and-see market. During such times, the price gap often widens between sellers who need to sell quickly and those who can afford to wait.

The new construction market needs to be viewed separately. There were 71 new construction transactions in September, with a median price of $399,000, down 5.2% from last year.

As the price gap with existing homes narrows, new constructions can also be considered for negotiation. If you're looking at new builds, it's important to compare not just the listed price but also closing cost assistance and interest rate buy-down conditions.

The time properties are staying on the market has also increased. The average days on the market in September was 62, up 10.7% from the previous month.

Active listings totaled 4,910, down 2.9% from 5,056 in August. However, compared to 4,571 in September of last year, the selection for buyers is still broader than a year ago.

Now, regarding interest rates. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate started at 7.28% on October 1, rising to 7.40% on the 8th and 15th.

It then decreased to 7.32% on the 22nd and finished the month at 7.24%. Considering that the rate was 6.17% on October 30 of last year, this is over a 1% increase.

Let's put this into perspective with numbers. Assuming you buy a house priced at $225,000 with a 10% down payment, borrowing $202,500 at a fixed rate for 30 years.

At 7.24%, your monthly principal and interest would be $1,380, while at 6.17%, it would be $1,236. That's an additional $144 per month just due to the difference in interest rates.

When property taxes and insurance are added, the monthly burden can exceed that of renting in the same neighborhood. This is one reason many are delaying their first home purchase these days.

However, I don't believe that waiting indefinitely is the solution. If interest rates drop, buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may return all at once, and the current negotiating power could diminish significantly.

Lastly, I want to highlight the issue of rental scams. MAAR issued a warning on October 14 about an increase in fake rental listings on TikTok.

The scam works like this: they list homes at prices significantly lower than the market rate and ask for an application fee before showing the property or request personal information like birth dates and income.

The warning cited a study indicating that most verifiable listings were over 25% cheaper than market rates, and many accounts were less than six months old. There were even cases where homes listed for sale were being advertised as rentals.

As mentioned earlier, since the median rent for a one-bedroom in Memphis is around $888, any listings significantly lower than that should be treated with suspicion. Be especially cautious when you're new to the area and not familiar with local conditions.

Before signing a lease, verify the owner's name in the Shelby County property records, and do not send any money until you have seen the property in person.

In summary, October in Memphis was characterized by steady rents, declining transactions, and high interest rates, resulting in a quiet market. If I were advising someone considering a purchase, I would suggest taking your time to look at available listings and focus on negotiating prices. Let's reassess the trends when the October sales statistics are released in mid-November.