Last month, I paused for a moment when I saw the September employment report numbers. Non-farm jobs increased by only 29,000.

Since the market expectation was between 84,000 and 95,000, it's honestly not an exaggeration to say it was a shock. But then I got a call from a friend that weekend.

"Hey, I'm thinking about changing companies, but after seeing this news, I'm scared." That was exactly what he said.

His concerns are probably similar to what many people are feeling right now, so let's break down the numbers step by step. It's a bit ambiguous to decide based on gut feeling alone.

According to the announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on October 2, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. However, it has remained between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.

What's more concerning are the revisions. July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000.

Combining the two months means a reduction of 60,000 from the initial announcement. The average increase over the past 12 months is also just 45,000 per month, so it's fair to say the job market is currently running in low gear.

By sector, healthcare added 17,000 jobs, construction added 11,000, and manufacturing added 9,000. Conversely, the finance sector saw a decrease of 7,000 jobs.

We can't overlook salary discussions either. The average hourly wage in the private sector is $37.81, which is up 5 cents from last month and up 3.0% from a year ago.

The number I've been looking at the longest is the number of long-term unemployed individuals who have not found a job for 27 weeks or more, which stands at 1.9 million, making up 27.1% of all unemployed individuals.

This indicates that once you're out of work, it's not easy to get back in. I hope you keep this number in mind when considering a job change.

So how many people are actually changing jobs? According to the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the voluntary resignation rate was 1.9%, the same as in July.

During the Great Resignation from late 2021 to early 2022, this number peaked at 3.0%. Right now, it seems everyone is holding onto their positions tightly.

The number of job openings has also dropped to about 7.1 million, the lowest level since March of this year. The good news is that the layoff rate is low at 1.0%.

In summary, it's a market where hiring is slow, layoffs are rare, and people aren't leaving their jobs. In this environment, moving can either lead to losses or present opportunities.

The situation in Texas is a bit different. According to the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC), the state lost 11,100 jobs in September, but over the year, there was an increase of 154,300 jobs, or 1.1%.

The state's unemployment rate was 4.4%, and the unemployment rate in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area dropped from 4.4% in August to 4.1%. Keep in mind that these figures are not seasonally adjusted.

The Dallas Fed has lowered its forecast for Texas job growth this year to 0.9%. They explained that a decrease in immigration has tightened the labor supply.

However, there is a bright side. The manufacturing sector is holding up thanks to oil, gas, exports, and construction related to AI expansion, according to the Dallas Fed's analysis.

When I was in the military, a senior often said, "The one who gives up their current position without securing the next one first is the first to suffer." This applies to job changes as well.

So my conclusion is simple. Never resign before signing an offer letter.

In Texas, at-will employment is the norm, so companies can terminate contracts without a significant reason. Even if you think you have a new job secured, it's wise to get everything in writing before the background check and start date.

And there's one more thing you need to know. In Texas, if you quit without just cause related to work, it's difficult to receive unemployment benefits.

With the long-term unemployment rate exceeding 27%, having a plan to quit and take a break while searching for a new job is riskier than it seems. I recommend setting aside at least a few months' worth of living expenses.

On the other hand, there are also people who can move now. If you have experience in fields like healthcare, construction, or manufacturing, where hiring is still ongoing, your negotiating power may be surprisingly strong.

The 3.0% wage increase means that if you stay at the same company, your salary is likely to increase by about that much. If a job offer comes in with more than a 10% difference, it's worth considering seriously.

If I were in your shoes, I would quietly build my performance at my current job, tidy up my LinkedIn profile, and accept all recruiter contacts.

It's not too late to look at one more number before making a decision. The October employment report will be released this Friday, November 6.

Personally, I believe that during times like these, public safety nets like unemployment insurance and reemployment assistance should be strengthened. It's a bit unfair for individuals to bear all the risks alone.

In the end, I told my friend, "Get an offer first, then think about it." You should secure your next position too.