In a nutshell, the San Antonio market in October saw rents decrease while borrowing costs increased. Tenants have some relief, but those looking to buy are facing higher monthly payments despite falling home prices.

Let's summarize from the baseline. The rental data for October is available, while home prices are based on the latest SABOR (San Antonio Board of Realtors) data confirmed up to early November, with September statistics released on October 9.

October sales statistics are expected to be released around the 10th of this month, based on the timing of the previous two months' announcements. Therefore, I used September figures for home prices without mixing in October data.

First, let's look at rents. According to the Apartment List November report, the median rent in San Antonio for October is $1,115.

A one-bedroom apartment averages $953, while a two-bedroom averages $1,173. This represents a decrease of 0.5% from the previous month and 3.5% from a year ago.

During the same period, Texas as a whole saw a 1.5% drop, while the entire U.S. experienced a 0.1% increase. Compared to the national median of $1,384, San Antonio's rents are 19.4% lower.

The fact that the drop is more than double the state average is something I also took note of. This is an uncomfortable figure for landlords.

There are significant differences within the metro area as well. The overall metro median is $1,140, but Boerne is at $1,336 with an annual decrease of 8.9%, while Seguin is at $881 with a 2.8% drop.

However, SABOR data shows that the average rent in September was $1,831. Since there is a difference of over $700 in the same city, it can be confusing at first glance.

The two figures are based on different measurements. Apartment List estimates are based on census median rents adjusted for their own inventory growth, while SABOR reflects the average of rental listings on the MLS.

Therefore, it's better to refer to Apartment List for apartment renewals and SABOR figures for single-family home rentals. There were 5,067 MLS rental listings in September.

Now, regarding sales. In September, there were 2,793 sales in the SABOR jurisdiction, slightly down from 2,823 a year ago.

The median price is $302,999, down about 2% from last year's $308,995, while the average price is $363,341. The median value was $312,000 in September 2024, indicating a decline over two years.

Looking specifically at Bexar County, the situation is somewhat different. Single-family home sales increased by 6% to 1,839, but the median price dropped by 4.8% to $282,680.

This suggests that lower-priced listings are selling. The inventory stands at 5.4 months' worth.

What caught my attention more is the speed of transactions. The average selling period has increased by 11% to 88 days, and the number of listings has risen by 4% to 17,155.

Inventory has climbed to 5.95 months, while the number of pending contracts has decreased by 16% to 2,091. This figure often reflects in upcoming sales statistics, making the October announcement even more anticipated.

We should also consider the difference between the asking price and the actual sale price. In September, transactions closed at an average of 92.4% of the initial listing price.

This means a house listed at $350,000 would sell for around $323,400. Of course, this is just an average, and it can vary significantly based on the neighborhood and condition of the home.

The issue lies with interest rates. As of October 29, Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.24%, up more than 1 percentage point from last year's 6.17%. The 15-year fixed rate is at 6.60%.

I did some calculations. If you buy a home at the September median price with a 10% down payment on a 30-year fixed mortgage, the principal and interest payment would be $1,858 per month.

If you calculate using last year's prices and rates, the monthly payment would be $1,698. Even though home prices have dropped by nearly $6,000, the monthly burden has increased by $161.

Property taxes are an additional cost. According to the Bexar County Appraisal District (BCAD) tax rate table updated on October 20, this year's city tax rate is $0.56288 per $100, up from last year's $0.54159.

The county rate has also increased from $0.276331 to $0.285963. School district rates vary, with Northside ISD increasing to $1.0349 and Northeast ISD decreasing to $0.9754.

Based on San Antonio city rates, I added the city, county, road flood, river authority, community college, and hospital rates to the school district. Before exemptions, the totals are $2.359964 for Northside and $2.300464 for Northeast.

If we assume a taxable value of $300,000, this means an increase of $209 for Northside and $99 for Northeast compared to last year, based on simple calculations. Actual taxes will vary based on exemptions and special districts, so you should check your own notice.

The school tax homestead exemption is $140,000, and the additional exemption for those over 65 is $60,000, as shown in the table. For payment inquiries, you should contact the county tax office, not BCAD.

There is also industry news. The merger between SABOR and the Four Rivers Board of Realtors has been completed, but the MLS was not included in the merger. It remains to be seen how this will affect the scope of statistics going forward.

So, how should we move forward? If you're a tenant, you might want to check the prices of new listings in your area before renewing your lease. With prices dropping, there's no reason to accept a rent increase.

If you're a serious buyer, instead of waiting for interest rates to drop, focus on negotiating prices and seller credits. The market has an average selling period of 88 days.

If you're an investor, it's time to recalculate cash flow considering the drop in rents and the 7% interest rates. Personally, I would pass on listings that don't align with the numbers, even if they seem cheap.