The median home price for October in Lee County was reported at $352,000, which is a 2.6% decrease from a year ago. This is a preliminary figure compiled by Momentum Research based on Florida Gulf Coast MLS records.

If the median price seems unfamiliar, think of it as the price of the house that sits right in the middle when all the homes sold that month are lined up in order of price.

There were 1,440 transactions, which is a 1.5% decrease. While it has dropped slightly, it's not enough to be called a crash.

What caught my attention more was the 94.1%. This is the ratio of the actual selling price to the initial listing price; for a house listed at $400,000, it sold for $376,400.

On the other hand, the median time on the market was 55 days, which is 9 days shorter than last year. My interpretation is that homes priced realistically are being sold first.

New constructions totaled 319 with a median price of $335,990, down 7.9%, while existing homes numbered 1,121 with a price of $365,000. New homes are actually $29,010 cheaper. Although the values are not directly comparable due to differences in size and location, don't rule out new constructions from your options.

There is a lag in inventory statistics. According to the latest Redfin data from July, there were 11,634 listings in Lee County, down 17.6% from a year ago. The number of contracts in progress was 1,859, which is a 3.4% increase.

In simple terms, this means that inventory decreased while contracts increased slightly until summer. It's too early to declare a bottom, and we need to see the October inventory figures.

The weak spot remains condos. As of October 29, there were 2,364 listings with 318 contracts in progress. That's a ratio of 7.4 to 1, while single-family homes had a ratio of 4.5 to 1.

Don't just look at the price tags for condos. There's a term called SIRS, which refers to an investigation into whether the building has properly set aside funds for major repairs.

Before purchasing, check the reserve balance, SIRS results, building insurance, and any planned special assessments. Who pays for the assessments depends on the contract checklist, so make sure to clarify before signing.

I haven't found the rental figures for October yet. The latest confirmed figure is from July, with the Zillow rental index at $1,864, down 1.2% from a year ago. However, it's still 47% higher than in 2019.

However, the atmosphere changes when looking at apartment complexes. According to RealPage, effective rents in Cape Coral-Fort Myers dropped by 11.1% in March. This marks a 33-month consecutive decline and is the largest drop among the top 150 markets.

Effective rent reflects the actual cost after accounting for discounts like free rent. Since the survey subjects and timing differ from Zillow, it indicates that competition among complex-style apartments is particularly fierce.

The cause is supply. According to CoStar data, the vacancy rate for Lee County apartments is projected to be 20.3% by 2026. Compared to 6.3% five years ago, I had to take a second look at the numbers.

New complexes often offer 2-3 months free rent. There's also local research indicating that an apartment that was $2,858.07 in 2023 is projected to drop to $2,209.60 by 2026, a decrease of 22.7%.

There are counterarguments as well. Local developer Joe Bono claims that the vacancies are a temporary oversupply and that established complexes are nearing a 95% occupancy rate. Even considering his position as a developer, there's some merit to his point.

If you're a tenant, check the conditions of nearby new complexes before renewing your lease. A 13-month contract at $2,200 with 2 months free means your effective monthly cost is $1,861.54.

The first hot topic is the city property tax. The Fort Myers City Council set the tax rate cap at 7.3112 mills on August 3, with last year's rate being 6.5 mills.

A mill is $1 for every $1,000 of taxable value. For a taxable value of $100,000, the city property tax would increase from $650 to $731.12. The cap for the fire assessment fee is also set to rise from $218 to $239.80.

This is just a cap. The final tax rate was to be determined at the September public hearing, but I haven't been able to confirm that figure yet. If your home is within city limits, check your bill directly.

Property taxes receive discounts if paid in November (4%), December (3%), January (2%), or February (1%). For a $4,000 bill, that's a reduction of $160. You can check this year's schedule on the Lee County Tax Collector's website at leetc.com.

The second issue is the property tax amendment Amendment 3, which will be voted on November 3. It proposes to raise the homestead exemption for property taxes, excluding school taxes, to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. The current limit is a maximum of $51,411.

If you're planning to move from another state, note that newcomers after 2026 will have to wait 5 years for the increased exemption. Some argue that this could be unconstitutional.

A 60% approval is needed for passage. The data I have is only up to the vote, so I won't make any definitive statements about the outcome. Check the official results from the Florida Division of Elections, and even if it passes, the first reflection will be on the November 2027 bill.

In summary, Lee County is currently a market where buyers have the upper hand. If you're looking to live there, I would start negotiations at 94.1% instead of accepting the asking price. For condos, I would take my time and review the documents first.

If you're investing, I won't calculate returns based on listed rents. I'll only consider properties that make sense even when factoring in vacancies and free months. Loans, taxes, and insurance vary by individual circumstances, so consult with a professional before signing any contracts.

The reference points are the October preliminary sales figures, July inventory, July and March rents, the August tax rate decision, and data before the amendment vote.