Recently, there has been an increase in news reports stating that "factory jobs are coming back thanks to tariffs." On the other hand, some argue that "tariffs have destroyed manufacturing." Both sides present numbers, but whose argument is correct?

So, I took a look at the BLS employment report. To cut to the chase, neither side is entirely wrong, but both are only telling part of the story.

First, let's start with the good news. In the August employment report, manufacturing jobs increased by 16,000 in just one month.

This marks three consecutive months of growth, following increases of 13,000 in June and 14,000 in July. The BLS notes that since the low point in December 2025, 58,000 jobs have been added.

The sectors driving this growth are machinery manufacturing and metalworking, each adding 6,000 jobs. Movement in factory equipment is not a bad sign.

The average weekly hours in manufacturing also rose to 40.5 hours, an increase of 0.1 hours, while overtime remained steady at 3.1 hours. Typically, when work decreases in factories, these numbers drop first.

From this perspective, it seems reasonable to say "revival." However, if we look back a little further, the story changes.

The large-scale tariffs were announced in April 2025. According to various reports analyzing BLS data, from that point until February 2026, manufacturing jobs decreased by 89,000.

This figure of 89,000 is often cited by those critical of tariffs. Nevertheless, the original data comes from the BLS, so anyone can verify these numbers.

This means that the current increase is primarily filling a significant gap that had formed. A rebound from a low point is a completely different story from a new boom.

When comparing to a year ago, the picture becomes clearer. Seasonally adjusted manufacturing employment was 12,615,000 in August 2025 and 12,638,000 in August 2026.

This represents an increase of about 23,000 jobs over the year. Honestly, I felt a bit deflated seeing this number, especially since total non-farm employment increased by 162,000 in just August.

So, my assessment is this: manufacturing is not experiencing a "revival" but rather is at the "beginning of recovery after hitting the bottom."

Now, let's narrow it down to San Antonio. According to a report from the San Antonio Report, manufacturing jobs in the area reached 62,400 in September 2024, the highest since 1990.

By June 2026, that number had dropped to 60,400, a loss of 2,000 jobs, or 3.2%, over nearly two years.

An economist from the Dallas Fed's San Antonio branch explained that this is not just a problem for San Antonio but reflects the overall trend in U.S. manufacturing. There was also an analysis suggesting that trade uncertainty has delayed hiring.

However, there is a twist. Toyota announced on July 6, 2026, that it would invest $3.6 billion to build a second assembly line at its San Antonio plant.

This line is part of a plan to move Tacoma production from Baja California, Mexico, to Texas over four years. The new jobs will total 2,000, with a target operational date of 2030.

Since Toyota broke ground in San Antonio in 2003, the total investment in this plant will reach $8.3 billion. The Texas state government has also provided $20 million in support.

There is also a JCB factory being established in the Southside, a British heavy equipment company. When fully operational in 2030, it plans to employ 1,500 people, and reportedly, 1,000 people showed up with resumes at the job fair.

These developments clearly indicate that tariffs and supply chain restructuring are driving "investment decisions." However, the key point is that it will take several years for that investment to translate into actual jobs with paychecks.

I believe in market principles, so I do not view tariffs as a panacea. Rising raw material costs are a burden for factories. Still, I think the direction of rebuilding domestic production capacity is necessary.

So, what can people like us do? Here's a summary based on my criteria.

First, the current growth is in machinery and metalworking. Skills like CNC, welding, and equipment maintenance can be started through short courses at community colleges.

Second, both Toyota and JCB aim for full operation by 2030. JCB has stated it will hire 500 people within the next year, so having a skill ready will help you not miss the timing.

Third, local hiring information is compiled monthly by Workforce Solutions Alamo from Texas Workforce Commission data. This is much more accurate than vague news reports.

Fourth, when you read articles stating "factory jobs are increasing," check where the baseline is. Depending on whether it's compared to the low point or a year ago, the same number can be interpreted very differently.

For reference, the September employment report was scheduled to be released this morning. This article is based on the August report, so I recommend checking the latest numbers on the BLS website.

In summary, it is true that factory jobs are increasing, but it is still too early to call it a revival. If I were in your shoes, I would prioritize the 2030 hiring schedule over political slogans.