As I gathered data to write the October report in the first week of November, I found that the finalized figures for Fort Worth in October have not yet been released anywhere. Real estate statistics typically come out one to one and a half months late. So today, I will summarize the market based on the most recent figures available, specifically from August to September.

To get straight to the point, home prices in Fort Worth are neither rising significantly nor falling; they are essentially stagnant. Rental prices have also remained relatively unchanged. However, the fact that mortgage rates have risen back to the 7% range is the biggest variable in this fall's market.

First, let's look at sales prices. According to Redfin, the median sale price for all homes in Fort Worth in September was $329,843, which is down 1.5% from a year ago.

If the median sale price seems unfamiliar, think of it this way: it is the price of the home that sits exactly in the middle when all the homes sold that month are lined up in order of price. It is a number that reduces the illusion created by a few expensive homes pulling the average up.

Zillow uses a slightly different metric. Instead of actual sale prices, it creates an index based on estimated values of homes in the neighborhood. As of August, the value of typical homes in Fort Worth was $295,800, which is down 0.1% from the previous month and down 1.8% from the previous year.

You might be surprised that the two companies' figures differ by over $30,000. One reflects the actual prices of homes sold that month, while the other includes estimated values of homes that have not sold. The important point is that both indicate a slight decline.

However, if we broaden the scope, the picture changes slightly. The Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center reported that home prices in the Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area rose by 0.6% in August compared to the previous year, marking four consecutive months of slight increases.

When looking only within city limits, prices have dipped slightly, but when considering the broader metropolitan area that includes emerging suburban neighborhoods, prices have increased slightly. In simple terms, it means that Fort Worth as a whole is not cooling down, but rather that different neighborhoods are experiencing varying temperatures.

Let's also touch on the trends from the first half of the year. According to data cited by the Fort Worth Report from the Fort Worth Real Estate Association, the median price in the second quarter was $335,000, down 0.6% from the previous year.

During the same period, the number of transactions increased by 7.6%, while the number of listings on the market decreased by 6.9%. Prices have held steady while transactions have picked up, indicating a relatively healthy market.

In June alone, 1,067 homes sold, which is a 5.2% increase from the previous year, and the median price was $335,975, down 0.3%. This can be considered nearly stable.

Now, let's discuss listings. The months of inventory decreased from 4.1 months in the second quarter to 3.8 months. Many may not be familiar with this concept, so let me explain.

Months of inventory refers to how many months it would take to sell all the current listings at the current sales pace. A smaller number indicates a seller's market, while a larger number indicates a buyer's market.

If the number is around four months, it is difficult to say that either side has a clear advantage. There is room for negotiation, but unreasonable price cuts are unlikely to succeed in this range.

The figures for the metropolitan area in September have also been released. According to reports citing data from the Texas A&M Research Center, there were 7,228 transactions in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in September, a decrease of 6.61% from the previous year.

In the same month, the median price in the metropolitan area was $379,990, down 1.56%, and the inventory was at 4.5 months. Active listings totaled 34,501, which is a decrease of 2.17%.

In summary, while there is not an overwhelming number of listings, the number of buyers has decreased. The reason for this can be attributed to one main factor: interest rates.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, as of October 22, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.32%, and for a 15-year fixed mortgage, it was 6.68%. This is more than a percentage point higher compared to the same time last year when the 30-year fixed rate was 6.19%.

A one percentage point increase may not seem significant, but for the same loan amount, the monthly payments noticeably increase. Even if home prices remain the same, the perceived cost has risen. In my experience observing the market over the past several decades, few variables move transaction volumes as quickly as interest rates.

Next, let's talk about rentals. According to RentCafe, as of September 30, the average rent in Fort Worth was $1,463, which is a 0.73% increase from $1,452 a year ago. Essentially, it has remained stable.

By unit type, the rents are as follows: studio $1,065, one-bedroom $1,274, two-bedroom $1,609, and three-bedroom $2,079. However, it is important to note that these figures are based only on large apartment complexes with over 50 units.

If single-family homes are included, the numbers rise significantly. Zillow's average rent for all types of homes in July was $2,075. This is why you need to budget differently depending on whether you are looking for an apartment or a house.

So, which is better right now: buying or renting? Let's compare the two options side by side.

Buying has the advantage of stable prices and room for negotiation. However, you will have to bear the burden of the 7% interest rate for several years, and if rates drop, refinancing costs will also be an additional expense.

Renting, on the other hand, has seen rents remain nearly unchanged for a year, making it a good time to avoid significant increases when renewing a lease. However, there is a downside: if home prices rise again, you may miss out on that appreciation.

In my opinion, if you plan to live in the same neighborhood for several years and have already determined your school district, it is better to look at listings during a less competitive time like now. If you are in a short-term stay or just starting to move, I would recommend renting for about a year to experience the neighborhood.

The finalized figures for October are expected to be released by the Fort Worth Real Estate Association and the Texas A&M Research Center in November. As soon as they are available, I will compare them with today's figures and provide an update.