The owner of a favorite restaurant on Olive Avenue in Burbank sighs that lunch sales are not what they used to be. Customers with studio passes have decreased. It's a bittersweet reality that local restaurant sales reflect the industry's economic indicators.

Burbank is not just a neighborhood with a few studios. According to Burbank Leader reports, 42% of the city's jobs are in the entertainment sector. This means that more than four out of ten people earn their living in this industry.

However, between 2022 and 2023, Burbank lost nearly 10% of its total jobs. The city council has announced plans to establish a film commission by March 2025 to expedite filming permits. This indicates a sense of urgency on the city's part.

The cause is the well-known runaway production phenomenon, where filming moves to other states or countries. Places like Georgia, New York, and the UK offer more substantial tax incentives, prompting production companies to make calculations in their favor.

This led to the introduction of a $750 million tax credit. Governor Newsom signed AB 1138 at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank on July 2, 2025. The choice of location sent a clear message from the start.

The limit was raised from the previous $330 million to over $750 million. The basic credit rate was also increased from the 20% range to 35%. In simple terms, the money returned for filming in California has significantly increased.

So, what does the report card look like a year later? According to data released by the governor's office in July this year, 170 projects have been selected for the 2025-26 fiscal year. The expected direct production spending is $6.6 billion.

In terms of jobs, that translates to 34,921 cast and crew members. The number of filming days in California is estimated at 6,630. On the surface, these numbers seem impressive.

However, looking at FilmLA statistics, the picture becomes a bit ambiguous. In the second quarter of 2026, the number of location filming days in the LA area was 4,711, a decrease of over 12% from the previous year. This is even lower than the 5,121 days in the first quarter.

By sector, the number of filming days for theatrical films decreased by 20% to 443 days. Reality TV saw a drop of 40%, and advertising fell by over 21%. Reports indicate that the total for 2025 also decreased by 16%, leaving us uncertain whether we have hit rock bottom or are still on the decline.

On a more positive note, TV dramas show some hope. The number of filming days for dramas in the second quarter was 732, down just over 6% from the previous year, but significantly up from the previous quarter. Among them, 38% were projects that received tax credits.

This indicates that credits are effective where they are applied. However, it should be noted that there is a time lag in reflecting these statistics, as it takes time from selection to actual filming.

We should also consider the reasons for the conflicting numbers. The governor's office figures represent approved plans for future filming, while FilmLA's numbers reflect actual filming days permitted and shot on LA streets. The comparison itself is different.

Moreover, reality shows and advertisements are areas less directly related to this tax credit. If those are excluded, the overall numbers will continue to look poor.

On the studio side, there is some good news. Local Burbank media reported that the production team of the show 9-1-1 has been instructed to prepare to move from the Fox lot to Burbank Disney Studios.

Conversely, news of mergers and restructuring among major media companies remains a concern. Even if credits bring filming back, reducing office jobs at headquarters is another issue.

To be honest, I support spending tax dollars on such industrial policies. If the state government does nothing, other states will take that business. Try telling that to the owner of a Burbank restaurant. The response probably won't be very positive.

However, the results must be transparently shown for the money spent. Taxpayers need to see consistent reports on how many people worked for how many months and whether those jobs truly went to Californians.

There are quite a few Korean individuals in this industry. Many are connected to editing, lighting, costumes, catering, and equipment rental, even if they are not directly on set. So, here are a few practical tips.

First, the California Film Commission website lists projects that have received tax credits. By seeing which projects are coming in and when, you can anticipate the flow of work.

Second, FilmLA releases filming statistics quarterly. Depending on whether your field is drama or advertising, the economic conditions can feel completely different, so be sure to keep an eye on it.

Third, if there has been a long gap in work, check your eligibility for EDD unemployment benefits in advance. Conditions for freelancers or short-term contractors can be complex, so it's safest to read the EDD guidelines directly.

Fourth, keep an eye on independent films. In the recent selection round, the proportion of independent productions was quite significant. Don't just focus on big studios; building relationships with smaller productions can create opportunities.

The same goes for business owners. B2B connections, like catering or equipment delivery on set, can be targeted just by looking at the project list.

In conclusion, if you ask whether filming is returning to Burbank, I would say it's a partially open door right now. The drama sector is breathing a little easier, but the overall landscape is still cold.

Still, I don't see this bet as a mistake. Expecting a $750 million seed to turn into a forest in just one year is a bit hasty.

If by this time next year the restaurant owner complains about not having any seats during lunch, then I will call that a true success. I would be more than happy to hear that complaint.