Have you felt something strange while watching the news in the US lately?

Even though people are being laid off due to the AI wave, the US unemployment rate is said to be stable, yet those who graduated from college this year are crying out that finding a job is extremely difficult. What's really going on?

I didn't understand it at first either. If the unemployment rate is stable, shouldn't it be easier to find a job? But as I looked into it more closely, I found there are reasons behind it.

Currently, the US job market is not hiring as many people as before, nor is it conducting large-scale layoffs.

In simple terms, companies are not letting go of existing employees unless absolutely necessary, but they are also not hiring new ones.

Economic experts refer to this situation as 'Low-Fire, Low-Hire.' In other words, it means that layoffs are rare, and new hiring is low.

In such a situation, the unemployment rate does not fluctuate much on the surface. Existing employees are still working.

However, the problem lies with the newcomers entering the workforce. Since there are hardly any openings, the entry points have become very narrow.

The analysis from the Federal Reserve also reached a similar conclusion.

Since 2023, the hiring pace has significantly slowed, leading to a noticeable increase in the unemployment rate among recent college graduates.

Ultimately, the biggest reason is that the job market itself has cooled down more than the impact of AI.

Of course, the influence of AI cannot be ignored. Tasks that used to be done by new employees, such as organizing data, document preparation, and simple analysis, are now largely handled by AI.

From the company's perspective, utilizing AI tools with existing employees is less costly and more efficient than hiring a new employee.

Moreover, there has been a significant increase in companies requiring AI skills even for entry-level positions.

A few years ago, it was enough to be good at Excel, but now it's common to require experience with ChatGPT, prompt writing, and AI automation.

As a result, it has become much more difficult to find a job with just a diploma.

That said, the claim that "AI is causing all jobs to disappear" seems a bit exaggerated.

This analysis also showed that the decrease in hiring has had a much greater impact than AI.

In the end, the main reason is that companies are hiring less.

So why does the unemployment rate appear stable? It's because the unemployment rate is calculated including millions of people who already have jobs.

If experienced workers in their 40s and 50s are holding onto their positions, the overall numbers do not change significantly.

However, if we look at just the newcomers, the atmosphere is completely different.

It's like the average temperature of a swimming pool seems fine, but the kids in the shallow end are shivering in the cold water.

Some Korean parents still think that sending their children to study in the US will naturally lead to job opportunities, but times have changed significantly.

It's no longer enough to just have good grades or speak English well. Skills in AI utilization, internship experience, projects, and communication abilities are all necessary to be competitive.

Ultimately, the biggest characteristic of the current US job market is that the numbers and the reality feel different.

While the news reports a stable unemployment rate, the threshold for employment has become higher than ever for young people taking their first steps into society.

While the US job market has not collapsed dramatically, it is clear that it feels particularly cold for newcomers.