I've heard several requests to summarize last month's Hilo real estate market. First, it's important to note that the official transaction statistics for October have not yet been released.

Therefore, this article compiles the most recent available data from September's transactions, along with the actual changes in interest rates and rental standards for October. I believe this approach is better than filling in blanks with estimates.

Let's start with the entire Big Island for September. According to the monthly report released by Title Guaranty Hawaii on October 1, there were 135 single-family home transactions.

This is a 21.5% decrease compared to a year ago. The median price for single-family homes was $499,000, which is down 15.0% from the same month last year.

If the term median is unfamiliar, think of it this way: it's the price of the house that sits exactly in the middle when all the homes sold that month are lined up by price.

Unlike the average, it is not skewed by a few very expensive homes. Instead, it fluctuates significantly based on which homes sold.

In the same month, 32 condos were sold on the Big Island, with a median price of $604,500. The September market report from Coldwell Banker Island Properties also shows the same trend with 135 single-family homes sold and a median price of $499,000.

Now, let's focus specifically on the South Hilo area where Hilo is located. In September, there were 8 single-family home transactions, with a median price of $502,000.

A year ago in September, there were 23 transactions, and the median price was $675,000. Looking at the numbers, transactions have decreased to just over a third, and prices have dropped significantly.

However, we shouldn't jump to conclusions too quickly. With only 8 transactions in a month, the sample size is too small.

Just the month before, in August, 20 single-family homes were sold in South Hilo, with a median price of $590,000. The significant difference in numbers between the two months is likely due to which homes were sold rather than a sudden drop in home prices.

Longer-term data can be more helpful. According to cumulative statistics released by Fidelity National Title based on Hawaii Information Service data up to April, the median price for single-family homes in South Hilo was $599,500.

This is essentially the same level as $600,000 from the same period last year. This indicates that home prices in Hilo have remained stable without significant increases or decreases through the first half of the year.

In September, 4 condos were sold in South Hilo, with a median price of $247,500. Last September, there were also 4 transactions, with a median price of $285,000, so the transaction volume remained the same.

The nearby Puna area has a slightly different atmosphere. In September, 66 single-family homes were sold, accounting for nearly half of the island's total transactions, with a median price of $392,000, which is up from $369,000 in September of last year.

It's been a long-standing trend that many people working in Hilo are looking towards Puna due to the burden of home prices. The steady demand is reflected in the numbers as well.

We also can't overlook interest rates. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.28% on October 1, rising to 7.40% on the 8th and 15th.

By the 22nd, it had slightly decreased to 7.32%. In simple terms, it remained in the mid-7% range throughout October, and there were no significant changes that would ease the burden for buyers.

I believe this interest rate is one of the reasons for the decline in Hilo transactions. Even with home prices around $500,000, the monthly payment can be burdensome, making it difficult for potential buyers to act.

Now, let's move on to rental prices. Honestly, sorting out rental data is much more challenging than sales data. This is because there are no actual transaction records, and calculations are based on listing prices from various sites.

As of June, Apartment.com reported that Hilo rents had decreased by 4.6% compared to a year ago, while Trulia noted a 5% decrease. In contrast, Zumper reported a 19% increase during the same period.

The conflicting directions are due to the limited number of rental listings in Hilo. The average can vary significantly depending on whether more single-family homes or apartments are listed.

Therefore, I recommend looking at one actual change that occurred in October. The Fair Market Rent set by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for the fiscal year 2027 began to take effect on October 1.

Fair Market Rent is the baseline amount for rental assistance programs like Section 8. You can think of it as the government's benchmark for what the average rent in the neighborhood should be.

If you enter Hawaii County or the zip code 96720 on huduser.gov, you can find the amounts based on the number of bedrooms. If you're about to sign a new lease or renew your current one, it's worth comparing it to what you're currently paying.

To summarize, Hilo home prices have remained around $600,000 throughout the first half of the year, and in September, the low transaction volume caused significant fluctuations in the numbers.

Interest rates remained in the 7% range in October, and rental data varies across sources, making it difficult to draw a definitive conclusion.

If I were in your position, I wouldn't jump in thinking that September's numbers indicate a bottom. I would choose to wait for the upcoming October statistics and the cumulative data for the third quarter to confirm the trend.

Whether you're a buyer or a renter, I hope you develop the habit of checking how many transactions occurred before focusing on the percentage mentioned in the article title. In a small market like Hilo, those numbers often tell you more than the prices do.