These days, a common question in LA parent group chats is, "Is our child's school going to close?"

The issue arose from the LAUSD Board of Education meeting on September 15, where preliminary data showed that student enrollment has decreased by nearly 4% compared to last year, and discussions about school consolidations have officially begun.

Let's look at the numbers. The reported enrollment for this year is 373,538 students.

This figure is nearly 1% lower than what the district anticipated when preparing the budget in June. This indicates that the decline is happening faster than expected at the beginning of the year.

In a broader context, the situation is even more surprising. In the 2002-03 school year, there were over 700,000 students.

In nearly 20 years, that number has almost halved. However, the number of school campuses has remained nearly the same, according to the superintendent.

Honestly, I found this point a bit absurd. If the number of students has halved but the buildings and operating costs remain the same, any company would have already undergone restructuring.

The district identified four reasons for this decline: falling birth rates, families leaving LA due to housing costs, changes in immigration patterns, and migration to other states.

Board member Kelly Gonez pointed out that schools in the East San Fernando Valley, where federal immigration enforcement is concentrated, have seen enrollment drops that are double those of other schools. This suggests that there isn't just one cause.

The reason student numbers are so important is that California allocates school budgets based on attendance. When the number of kids decreases, funding decreases immediately.

This is compounded by the financial situation. According to a report from LAist, a deficit of about $2 billion is expected in this year's $20.6 billion budget.

The district staff projected that without implementing austerity measures, funds would run out during the 2027-28 school year. The county office of education sent a financial expert in July, and the budget was conditionally approved.

The Board of Education adopted a $3.5 billion reduction plan in June, which includes saving $30 million annually through school consolidations and repurposing.

However, these consolidation savings are set to take effect starting in the 2028-29 school year. This does not mean that our local school will close next year.

As of now, there is no list of schools targeted for closure. I want to emphasize this point. Claims circulating in group chats about "which schools are confirmed" have no basis at this time.

The process is not smooth either. On September 14, the Board of Education postponed a vote on a $960,000 contract with consulting firm Alvarez and Marsal to establish criteria for closures and consolidations.

The teachers' union, UTLA, has strongly criticized this company. There will likely be considerable debate about who will set the criteria and how.

Superintendent Andres Chait stated that he would begin conversations with local residents in the coming weeks. He emphasized that the goal is not to reduce the number of schools but to create stronger schools.

Personally, I believe this direction is correct. It is realistically difficult to offer AP courses, music, and sports at a school with only 200 students.

It makes more sense numerically to combine schools and enhance programs rather than pay for heating and cooling empty classrooms with tax dollars. The challenge lies in execution.

So, what can parents do right now? I would focus on three things.

First, check the recent enrollment trends at your child's school. You can view enrollment numbers by school for free on the California Department of Education's DataQuest site.

If the numbers have been declining for several years, it is realistic to consider the possibility of being discussed for consolidation. This is about making decisions based on data rather than emotions.

Second, make sure to attend community dialogue sessions when they are scheduled. Issues like commuting distance, safe routes to school, and dual-language programs need to be voiced directly to be reflected in the criteria.

If you are sending your child to a school with a Korean dual-language program, this is even more crucial. If schools are consolidated, there may not be anyone asking whether the program will move along with the school.

Third, occasionally check the agenda for Board of Education meetings. The schedule and materials are posted on the LAUSD website's Board of Education page.

For families considering school options, it would also be good to keep an eye on magnet and charter application timelines. The longer the discussions about consolidation go on, the less likely you are to be shaken if you know your options in advance.

In summary, student decline is a reality, and discussions about consolidation have begun, but specific lists and timelines have not yet been established.

I believe that ultimately, the number of schools will be reduced. That is the right direction. However, it seems that it is the parents' responsibility to monitor the situation closely to ensure that unfavorable decisions for our children do not quietly emerge during this process.