By mid-November, I often get questions asking for a comparison of October prices. However, it's surprisingly difficult to provide a clear picture of October numbers for Burlington at this time.

Currently, reliable monthly data for October has not yet been fully compiled. So today, I want to summarize how to interpret the October numbers when they are released, based on the trends confirmed up to September.

First, let's look at the sales side. According to Redfin, the median sale price in the Burlington metro area for the first half of this year was $466,065, which is 4.2% lower than a year ago.

During the same period, there were 830 listings on the market, an increase of 19.4%. The months of inventory also rose to 3.7 months.

From the numbers alone, the atmosphere is definitely not like during the pandemic when offers flooded in as soon as buyers went to see a house. Buyers now have a bit more breathing room.

However, changing the criteria alters the picture. According to Hickok & Boardman, the median price for single-family homes in Chittenden County for the first half of the year was $577,000.

This figure has also decreased by 2.2%, but what stood out more was that the number of transactions dropped by 9%. This signals that transaction volume is cooling before prices.

There is also data for September. According to Redidline, the median sale price based on 334 transactions confirmed in Burlington over the past six months was $512,500.

This is quite different from Redfin's figure of around $460,000. The discrepancy can easily arise depending on whether the data includes the city metro area or condos.

Therefore, when comparing September and October, it's essential to look at the same source and the same scope. If you place September data from one site next to October data from another, it may appear that home prices have risen when they haven't.

For reference, the overall mood in Vermont is somewhat different. According to Redfin's September data, the statewide median price was $423,782, which is a 3.3% increase from a year ago.

Transaction volume also increased by 6.9%, and the median time to sell was 69 days. It's interesting to note that Burlington behaves differently from the state average.

Now, let's move on to rental discussions. According to Rentometer, the median prices for the Burlington-South Burlington metro area in mid-June were $1,617 for studios and $1,629 for one-bedroom apartments.

Two-bedroom apartments were $2,055, and three-bedrooms were $2,835. I found it surprising that there was almost no difference between studios and one-bedrooms.

In contrast, based on PadMapper listings, the median price for one-bedrooms in May was $1,773, while two-bedrooms in June were recorded at $2,185. Even during the same period, there is a difference of over $140 for one-bedrooms.

Trulia reported an average rent of $2,100 in May, stating it had decreased by $140 from a year ago. This shows that rental numbers vary significantly depending on the source.

It's essential to consider the season when looking at Burlington rents. After the summer leasing season, when demand from UVM and Champlain College students peaks, the number of new listings tends to decrease in the fall.

Thus, during the transition from September to October, the sample size is thin, and the median values can fluctuate significantly. This is why you shouldn't interpret a few dozen dollars up or down in a month as a trend.

Even within the same city, conditions vary by neighborhood. Downtown and the Old North End near the school have many homes that move according to the student leasing cycle.

In contrast, areas like New North End or South End have more long-term family tenants, so price changes in the fall are relatively less pronounced. South Burlington often has newer developments, so even the same two-bedroom units can be priced higher.

So where can you check the October numbers? For sales, the Redfin Burlington market page or the Vermont Realtors Association monthly report are relatively consistent sources.

For rentals, choose a site that updates monthly, like Rentometer or PadMapper, and compare only September and October from that site. It's crucial not to mix sources.

Also, don't just look at the median price; consider the number of listings and the time it takes to sell. If prices remain the same but inventory is piling up, it indicates more room for negotiation.

Based on the trends confirmed so far, Burlington's sale prices are slightly lower or similar to last year, and inventory has increased. Rents are fluctuating in the low $2,000s for two-bedrooms, depending on the source.

If you're looking to buy a two-bedroom condo for rental income, the news of declining sale prices while rents hold steady is not bad for profitability. However, you need to factor in property taxes and management fees to get the actual numbers.

If I were looking for a home right now, I wouldn't rush into buying. It seems more advantageous to target homes that have adjusted prices during the winter off-season when inventory is increasing.

Conversely, I believe now is a good time to negotiate for rentals, avoiding the student season. Once the official October data is released, I will compare and summarize again based on the same criteria.