In one line, the Lexington market in October can be summarized like this: buyers have a bit of breathing room.

Let me clarify the basis first. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) typically releases official town statistics for October around mid-November. Therefore, this article compiles September closing transaction data, early November rental indicators, and October interest rates.

To make it easier to understand, let's follow the situation of one family. They are renting in Lexington due to the school district and are considering buying a home.

The first number this family will look at is the price of single-family homes. According to MAR data, the median sale price for single-family homes in Lexington from January to September this year was $1.75 million.

During the same period last year, it was $1.95 million. That's a drop of 10.3%. Honestly, I was a bit surprised to see a double-digit decline in this neighborhood.

Looking at just September, the median price was $1.57 million, which is 9.5% lower than last September's $1,734,250. However, there were only 15 transactions in September, so the monthly figure can fluctuate significantly.

In fact, in August, the median price was $1,978,750, which had actually increased. So, it's better to look at the cumulative trend rather than just the monthly figures.

What's more noticeable is the inventory. At the end of September, the inventory of single-family homes was 83, which is 29.7% more than the 64 homes available at the same time last year.

There were also many new listings. From January to September, there were 354 new listings, up 7.6% from 329 during the same period last year. More sellers have entered the market, but the pace of buyers hasn't kept up.

The absorption period has also increased from 2.8 months to 3.5 months. This means that a neighborhood that was previously seller-favored is shifting slightly toward balance.

The speed of sales has also slowed down. The market stay duration for September transactions was 49 days, longer than last year's 44 days.

Looking at the year-to-date figures, the stay duration from January to September was 50 days, which is two weeks longer than last year's 36 days.

The numbers also show room for negotiation. September transactions sold for 97.6% of the initial listing price, compared to 98.9% in September last year.

The atmosphere is different from a few years ago when buyers had to offer above the listing price to secure a home. For this family, it might be a good environment to make an offer without waiving inspection conditions.

So, how did October transactions fare? The official figures are still pending, but there are hints.

In September, there were 20 pending single-family home contracts, which is 25.9% less than the 27 contracts in September last year. Since closings typically occur within a month or two after a contract, it's likely that there weren't many closings in October.

Let me add one more comparison point. The median price for single-family homes in October last year was $1,574,500, with 22 transactions.

The sample size for condos is too small. With only 3 transactions in September, the median price of $915,000 should be taken with caution.

Next, let's talk about rentals. This family needs to assess whether their current rent is reasonable.

According to data updated by RentCafe on November 1, the average rent for apartments in Lexington is $3,521, down 3.62% from last year's $3,653.

From the same data, the average rent for one-bedroom apartments is $2,782, and for two-bedrooms, it's $3,660.

Zillow reports slightly lower numbers. As of early November, one-bedroom apartments are at $2,705, and two-bedrooms at $3,125.

The difference comes from the way the data is collected. RentCafe focuses on larger apartment complexes, while Zillow is based on listed prices.

Still, the trend is the same. Rents have decreased compared to last year. Regardless of which source you consider, it's not an unfavorable market for those looking to rent right now.

If they are about to renew their lease, it might be worth discussing these numbers. They don't have to accept the landlord's proposed increase outright.

The last variable is interest rates. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.32% on October 22 and 7.24% on October 29.

On November 5, it dropped slightly to 7.18%. However, being in the 7% range still poses a burden.

If you do the math, it becomes clearer. For a $1.75 million home with a 20% down payment, borrowing $1.4 million at a 30-year fixed rate of 7.2% results in a monthly principal and interest payment of $9,503. Property taxes and insurance are separate, so in a neighborhood like Lexington, where property tax burdens are significant, the actual monthly expenses will definitely be higher.

Compared to a rent of around $3,500, the difference is quite large. If this family's only reason to rush is vague anxiety, I would choose to rent for another year and observe.

On the other hand, if a suitable home in the desired school district becomes available, the situation changes. This is one of the few times when you can negotiate on price.

The official statistics for October can be found in the town report on the MAR website in mid-November. Once released, I will summarize whether the trends from September have continued.