Will Bitcoin disappear or reach $500,000?

Which will come first?

This is a question that always comes up when Bitcoin is discussed.

"They say it will eventually hit $500,000" vs. "No, it could just disappear at any moment."

Is there any other asset with such extreme predictions?

As of 2025, Bitcoin is fluctuating between about $80,000 and $110,000.

However, to reach $500,000, it would need to increase by almost more than 5 times.

So why do people think this is possible?

1. Halving of mining rewards
   Bitcoin has a structure where the mining reward is halved every four years.
   This means that as supply decreases, scarcity increases.
   It's a mechanism similar to gold that prevents inflation.

2. ETF approval and institutional entry
   In 2024, Bitcoin spot ETFs were officially approved in the U.S.,
   and Wall Street funds began to flow in.
   This means that institutional investors are starting to see Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset,
   but as a long-term investment.

3. Distrust in fiat currency
   As the world struggles with rising prices,
   Bitcoin is gaining attention as a borderless digital store of value.
   This indicates that the concept of "inflation hedge" is still in play.

If this trend continues, $500,000 could become a 'discussable figure' within 10 years.

On the other hand, what if Bitcoin disappears?

To disappear means, quite literally, a situation where its existence becomes meaningless.

This is not just a simple price drop, but a situation where the network stops or there are no use cases.

So under what conditions could Bitcoin disappear?

1. Extreme government regulation
   As more countries declare "Bitcoin usage banned" like China,
   and if international cooperation strongly controls digital assets,
   the number of users will inevitably decrease.

2. Security threats or technical flaws
   Bitcoin has not been hacked for over 10 years,
   but if advancements in quantum computing or vulnerabilities in its internal algorithms are revealed,
   trust could collapse rapidly.
   Bitcoin is 'trust-based', so if technological trust collapses,
   it could simply be the end.

3. If replaced by new technology
   Bitcoin is the first, but it is not the perfect coin.
   It is slow, has high fees, and is inconvenient for real-life payments.
   If superior blockchain technology that overcomes these issues emerges,
   the current Bitcoin could become a 'relic of the past'.
   Just like how MS-DOS transitioned to Windows.

Which will come first?

The answer is that no one knows. But one thing is certain: both are extreme scenarios.

For Bitcoin to reach $500,000, there needs to be much stronger demand, institutional acceptance, and global economic instability.

Conversely, for Bitcoin to disappear, there would need to be a series of massive events such as unified global regulation, technological collapse, or explosive growth of alternative assets.

In other words, both situations are not easy to achieve.

Bitcoin is still highly volatile, but it has already become a pillar of the global financial infrastructure.

So what is my conclusion?

It is more likely to reach $500,000 than to disappear.

However, in the process, we will have to ride the roller coaster many times, and many people may get tired and give up.

Bitcoin is not just an investment, but a fight of belief and endurance.

If you are not confident in handling that fight, it might be wise not to dive too deep in the first place.