These days, when I talk to people looking at homes in Tampa, there's a common question that comes up before discussing available properties. They want to know how much their property taxes will decrease if Amendment 3 passes on the ballot on November 3rd.

When you break it down numerically, it's simpler than you might think. However, it's important to distinguish between the parts that will decrease and those that will remain the same, as failing to do so can lead to inflated expectations.

The official name of this amendment is CS/HJR 1F. It was passed by the state legislature during a special session in June and is now up for a vote. Since it involves a constitutional amendment, it requires more than 60% approval to take effect.

Currently, the homestead exemption is divided into two parts. The first $25,000 applies to all taxes, including school taxes, while the second tier applies only to non-school taxes.

The second tier is indexed to inflation, with a maximum exemption amount of $51,411 based on 2026 figures from the Manatee County Property Appraiser's FAQ.

If the amendment passes, the exemption for school taxes will remain at $25,000. However, the exemption for non-school taxes will increase to $150,000 starting January 1, 2027, and to $250,000 starting January 1, 2028.

The key point here is that the school tax exemption will not change. The portion allocated to the school district will not decrease as a result of this amendment.

Let's consider an example. For a homestead property with an assessed value of $300,000, the current taxable value for school taxes is $275,000, while the taxable value for other taxes is $248,589.

In 2027, the taxable value for school taxes will remain at $275,000, while the taxable value for other taxes will drop to $150,000. Starting in 2028, the taxable value for other taxes will fall to $50,000.

Homes with a larger proportion of taxes from county, city, and fire services, as opposed to school taxes, will feel a more significant impact. Conversely, if the assessed value is below $250,000, starting in 2028, the taxable value for non-school taxes will drop to zero, leaving only the school tax.

It's important to note that the figures discussed here refer to assessed values, not market values. Due to the Save Our Homes cap, the assessed value can only increase by 3% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower, each year.

As a result, the longer you own a home, the greater the disparity between market value and assessed value. A home valued at $500,000 could have a significantly lower assessed value, so it's crucial to calculate based on your assessed value.

New residents have different conditions. If you are not a Florida resident as of December 31, 2026, you will initially receive the existing level of exemptions, and the increased exemptions will apply starting in the fifth year of ownership.

Many people moving from other states to Tampa are unaware of this aspect, which can lead to incorrect estimates for the first few years. If you are considering the timing of your move, this is an important condition to keep in mind.

Investment properties or second homes do not qualify for the expanded exemptions since they are not homesteads. However, the annual increase cap for non-homestead properties will decrease from 10% to 5%.

Taxes won't decrease immediately; rather, the rate of increase will slow down. For those generating rental income, this means that predicting long-term holding costs becomes somewhat easier.

Tenants will not directly benefit from this. One of the main arguments from the opposition is that the reduced tax burden will ultimately be passed on to tenants and small businesses.

Local government estimates are also available. Hillsborough County anticipates that at the $150,000 exemption level in 2027, annual property tax revenue will decrease by $248.6 million, a reduction of 15.7%.

By the time the $250,000 exemption is implemented in the 2029 fiscal year, the decrease is expected to grow to $366.9 million, representing a 23.2% reduction compared to the 2026 fiscal year.

The City of Tampa projects a decrease in revenue of $35 million to $40 million in the 2028 fiscal year and $60 million to $65 million in the 2029 fiscal year. The market has warned that new fees may arise as a result.

Supporters include the Florida Republican Party and the Florida Realtors Association, while opponents include sheriff and firefighter organizations. Both sides present valid arguments, making it difficult to judge based solely on one side's numbers.

From my perspective in the market, one point to consider is that if fixed property tax costs decrease, the price of homes that can be managed with the same monthly payment may rise slightly, which is certainly a positive factor for genuine buyers.

However, if the city begins to compensate through fees or special assessments, the total amount on the bill may not decrease as much as expected. It's essential to view property tax items separately from non-tax assessments.

Checking your assessed value is not difficult. You can search for your address on the Hillsborough County Property Appraiser's website to find your assessed value and current exemption details, which are also included in the TRIM notice that arrives around August each year.

By calculating the school taxes and other taxes based on that assessed value using the official formulas, you can see the approximate changes. The exact tax rates vary by area, so refer to the non-ad valorem items on your notice for guidance.

And remember, nothing is finalized yet. The Pinellas County Property Appraiser's office has also stated that current laws will remain in effect until the amendment is approved.

Personally, I recommend that homestead owners check their assessed value regardless of the voting outcome. It's not too late to act after the results are in, but knowing the numbers in advance will allow for much quicker decision-making.