These days, as you pass by the East Bank area, the first thing that catches your eye is the demolition site barriers. This is the Oracle Campus site, and it's hard to believe it's already been five years since we first heard the announcement.

During this time, the neighborhood has been buzzing with the question, "Is Oracle really coming?" So this time, I decided to compare articles and public documents one by one to separate expectations from reality.

The starting point is 2021. Oracle promised to build a campus in the River North area and create 8,500 jobs by the end of 2031.

The average salary target for these jobs was $110,000. Given the local context, that's quite a high figure, and I remember everyone being excited at the time.

There's also significant public support. The Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development promised $65 million in incentives, and the Metro government agreed to a structure that would return up to $175 million in property taxes for infrastructure costs.

In 2024, Larry Ellison publicly stated that he would make this location the company's global headquarters. That one statement raised expectations even further.

However, the reality on paper is a bit different. As of January this year, the official headquarters address listed in SEC filings was still in Austin.

Looking at the number of employees, the difference becomes clearer. According to reports from the same period, the number of employees at this office was around 800, while Kansas City had over 5,000.

There were varying reports on the net increase in employees last year, so I won't delve into that here. However, it was consistent across reports that the numbers fell far short of the targets.

One reason cited for the lack of people coming is the salary regional classification. This city is classified in a lower salary bracket than California, leading to concerns that moving here could cap future salary increases.

This part was honestly a bit disheartening. While housing prices and rents have already risen significantly, salaries are still pegged to the standards of a cheaper city.

By the end of March, Oracle conducted large-scale layoffs globally. Investment bank TD Cowen estimated the layoffs to be between 20,000 and 30,000 employees.

Some employees here received layoff notices, but the local numbers were not disclosed. Subsequently, the company announced it would reduce its initial plan for over 1 million square feet of office space.

Still, construction hasn't stopped. Demolition of the campus site is ongoing, and the overall development is targeted for completion by 2031.

A pedestrian bridge connecting Germantown and East Bank also broke ground in August. It will be 863 feet long, designed by Foster and Partners.

To the south of the campus, a Nobu hotel with 120 rooms is also planned. There's interest in whether the tourist flow from Broadway will extend across the river.

In the meantime, Oracle is filling space through leasing. They have signed a long-term lease for 116,000 square feet at the New Hope development, with plans to move in during the second half of this year.

Now, the real key is the hiring pace. According to local media analysis, to meet the target by the end of 2027, they need to hire at least 1,500 people each this year and next.

The state government contract includes a clawback provision. If they fail to meet 90% of the promised employment by the end of 2029, they must return part of the incentives, and if it's below 50%, they must return the full amount.

On the other hand, there have been criticisms that the contract with the Metro Industrial Development Board does not include clawback language. From a citizen's perspective, this is something that will need to be monitored closely.

So how should those seeking jobs here view this? In my opinion, it's more accurate to look at the actual flow of job postings rather than just the number 8,500.

Try tracking the number of job postings and positions listed on the Oracle careers site for this city over a month. Seeing consistent postings in cloud and healthcare IT would be a good sign.

If you're considering a job change, it's wise to ask how the regional classification applies in the salary offer. Also, inquire about how the criteria change if you move to another region after joining.

You don't have to focus solely on Oracle. This city has many healthcare companies, so the arrival of the Oracle Campus could stimulate demand from surrounding partners and startups.

Just as the music industry helped this city grow, the tech industry also needs people to establish a presence. It's natural for buildings to go up first, but if people don't come, it will just be an empty stage.

Personally, I'm half hopeful and half skeptical. The bridge and hotel are visibly being constructed, but the hiring numbers haven't kept pace.

So I'm viewing the goal of 2,500 by the end of next year as the first test. Just seeing whether that number is met will give us an idea of the weight of this promise.

For those preparing for tech jobs, I think now is the time to build your network. It's good to have hope, but judging by confirmed numbers is the least shaky approach.