Starting with the rental numbers for October, Nashville is still favorable for tenants. According to the Apartment List November report, the median rent in October is $1,361, down 0.6% from last month and 2.0% from a year ago.

Let's follow one Korean family planning to move here from another state. They intend to live in a two-bedroom apartment for about a year to get familiar with the neighborhood before deciding to buy a house.

The first number this family will look at is the median price for two-bedrooms, which is $1,356. The one-bedroom median is $1,219. Multiplying the two-bedroom rent by 12 months gives a total of $16,272.

The national median rent from the same report is $1,384, making Nashville 1.7% lower. Year-over-year changes show a 0.1% increase nationally, while Tennessee has seen a 0.9% decrease, indicating a larger drop in Nashville.

The peak rent recorded was $1,542 in July 2022. Currently, that's $181 less per month, which amounts to a $2,172 difference over the year.

The recent low was $1,335 in March of this year, and October's rent is $26 higher than that.

The year-over-year decline has also been decreasing: 3.6% in July, 2.9% in August, and 2.0% in October. While this is advantageous for current tenants, there's no guarantee that the same conditions will apply when renewing leases next year.

There is room for negotiation, as indicated by the August data. According to Apartment List, the vacancy rate in August was 8.3%, up from 8.0% a year ago. 49% of apartments offered one month of free rent, compared to 42% last year.

So, you can't just look at the listed rent. If a $1,356 apartment offers one month free on a 12-month lease, the actual cost is $1,243 per month. Be sure to ask about renewal terms, as benefits may not carry over.

For one-bedrooms in August, the average rent dropped 7.2% to $2,060, while Midtown saw a 6.6% decrease to $1,601. In contrast, Music Row increased by 1.7% to $2,116, and Antioch rose by 0.1% to $1,177.

While downtown areas are easier to negotiate discounts, they come with higher prices. Antioch has lower costs, but the trend is not downward.

According to Zumper data reported by WSMV, the August one-bedroom rent was $1,520, reflecting a 10.1% decrease. In the same month, Apartment List reported $1,230, a 2.9% drop.

It's not that one source is wrong; the methods of aggregation differ. Therefore, it's problematic to piece together trends from numbers sourced differently.

The Matthews third-quarter report aggregated 10 regions, showing an average rent of $1,622, a 0.2% decrease, with a vacancy rate of 5.3%.

The number of completed units in the third quarter was 1,600, down 42% from 2,771 units a year ago. There are still 11,383 units under construction, which is 5.4% of the inventory.

With fewer completions, there's potential for rent recovery, which is favorable for landlords. However, the remaining inventory means that significant price increases are unlikely, providing some comfort for tenants.

Now, we move to the stage of buying a house in a year. I haven't been able to check the October figures for sales by the time of writing this, and the latest data I've seen is from Redfin for August. Please do not interpret the following numbers as October figures.

According to Redfin, the median sale price in Davidson County for August was $468,432, down 4.2% from a year ago. July was $480,590, reflecting a 0.1% increase, so it's difficult to determine the direction based solely on one month's data.

For the city of Nashville, Redfin combined data from June to August, showing a median sale price of $475,538, a 0.5% decrease, with inventory at 5.8 months. The timing differs, so it cannot be directly compared to the county's August figures.

In August, there were 869 transactions in the county, a 7.0% decrease. In contrast, new listings increased by 23.5% to 1,575, and the total number of active listings rose by 7.7% to 6,702. Inventory has surpassed six months.

From a buyer's perspective, there are more options available. The average sale price in August was 97.2% of the asking price, with 12.1% of homes selling for more than the asking price. The median listing price from Realtor.com for August was also down 3.07% from a year ago.

However, this doesn't mean the market has frozen. The average time to sell in August was 66 days, which is actually three days shorter than a year ago.

If this family buys a home at the county median price with a 20% down payment, the down payment alone would be $93,686. While having more options is advantageous, the concern is that a large sum of money is tied up, and prices could drop further. Monthly payments depend on interest rates, so you should compare them to rent for an accurate estimate.

Don't forget about property taxes. In the 2025 reassessment, the total assessed value for the county increased by 45%, and the tax rate was adjusted to prevent revenue increases. Axios reported that the number of appeals last December rose to 15,278 from 7,525 in 2021, with hearings scheduled as late as 2026.

So, if you find a house you like, be sure to check the previous tax bill and the current assessed value directly from Metro data.

If I were this family, I would choose to rent for a year. It's a time when discounts can be secured, and there's little reason to tie up a large sum of money without knowing the neighborhood well.

However, if a location has already been determined due to school or work, the current favorable negotiation conditions with plenty of inventory are still valuable.

What to watch for moving forward are two things: whether the fall transaction data from Greater Nashville Realtors and Redfin continues the trend from August, and whether the rate of rent decline continues to decrease.