When looking at properties in Kahului, there are risks to check first. One is that we are in a correction phase after a rapid increase. The median price in this area jumped nearly 70% from $700,000 in 2020 to $1.2 million in 2024. After that, the trend reversed, and by 2026, it had dropped to around $1.1 million. According to Zillow's ZHVI, the average home value is $1,016,632, which is down 5.0% from a year ago, and Maui County as a whole has seen a 5.3% decline. This area clearly shows that a correction follows a rapid increase.

There are three main items to check in order. First is the speed of transactions. According to Redfin, it takes between 95 to 119 days for a property to sell, and the market competition index is only 11 out of 100. This indicates a clear buyer's market. Second is the inventory structure. More than 10% of homes in Maui County are tied up as second homes or vacation rentals, compared to a national average of 3%, which is significantly higher. This structure supports rental income during normal times, but it poses a potential supply risk if the tourism market falters, as properties could flood the market all at once. Third is the rebuilding variable. Of the 2,746 homes lost in the 2023 Lahaina fire, about 82%, or 2,248 homes, are in the rebuilding process, with 600 of them already occupied. As rebuilding progresses, it could impact the flow of properties in nearby Kahului.

Employment and population trends should also be considered. Hawaii's overall economic growth rate is gradually recovering, projected at 1.6% in 2026, but the employment and income of residents in fire-affected areas are still below pre-fire levels. The number of employed individuals dipped due to a slowdown in the tourism industry and federal budget adjustments, but it has recently started to increase again. Between April 2021 and July 2023, rents in the Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina area rose by 28%, exceeding the national average of 22.4%, indicating how tight the supply is.

If Korean families are looking for a place to live, it's advisable to check school districts in Central Maui, such as Kahului and Wailuku, which are relatively accessible. School district boundaries change frequently, so it's best to verify the assigned school for the specific address before signing a contract. For families moving from other states, while Hawaii's property tax rate is generally low, different rates may apply to non-owner-occupied properties, so it's wise to check with the county tax office in advance.

Investors should check one more thing. Just because rental rates have risen doesn't mean the current yield is good. The purchase prices have increased significantly, so the overall rental yield is not particularly attractive, and given the high proportion of second homes, one must also consider vacancy risks and management costs. It's especially important to be cautious of excessive leverage, as a slowdown in the tourism market or changes in interest rates could quickly worsen cash flow.

If planning to take out a loan, it's important to realistically calculate the monthly repayment burden based on the average fixed mortgage rate of around 6.6% against the already high purchase price. In markets with a high proportion of second homes, the county may apply different property tax rates to non-residential properties or change short-term rental regulations, so it's safer to check the latest regulations with the county tax office before purchasing. Having a sufficient equity ratio will provide more resilience during times of tourism market fluctuations.

In summary, Kahului is a market that requires careful consideration due to the combination of corrections and rebuilding variables following a rapid increase. It's safer to check each of the three items mentioned above one by one before making a decision. This article does not constitute investment or legal advice, and it is recommended to consult with a professional regarding individual circumstances before making any contracts.