I gathered data to summarize the real estate numbers for San Diego in October, but as of the time of writing this article, the official statistics for home prices in October have not yet been released.

The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) typically releases its sales report for October around mid-November. Therefore, I will separate the most recent confirmed data for home prices from September and the rental data for October.

First, let's look at the sales market. According to C.A.R. data, the median price for existing single-family homes in San Diego County in September was $1.05 million.

This is a decrease of 3.7% from August's $1.09 million. However, compared to a year ago, it is reported to be 6.1% higher.

There's no need to be surprised that the price dropped by $40,000 in just one month. As we enter fall, the composition of homes sold changes, so monthly prices naturally fluctuate.

What I find more noteworthy than the price is the transaction volume. The number of sales in the county in September decreased by 12.2% compared to a year ago and fell by 6% from August.

The pending sales, which indicate contracts that have been signed but not yet closed, also dropped by 15.8% compared to a year ago.

While prices are holding steady, transactions are declining, which is a familiar scenario for those of us who have been observing this market for a long time. Sellers are not lowering their prices, and buyers are hesitant to move due to interest rates.

Looking at the state as a whole, the annualized sales of single-family homes in California for September were 260,410, a decrease of 6.5% from a year ago.

Southern California experienced the largest annual decline at 9.1%. This indicates that the issue is not unique to San Diego.

The backdrop to this trend is, of course, interest rates. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.4% in early October, the highest level in nearly three years.

In the announcement on November 5, it dropped to 7.18%, marking a decline for three consecutive weeks. However, compared to 6.22% a year ago, it is still nearly a full percentage point higher.

For homes priced over $1 million, a 1% difference in interest rates can increase monthly payments by several hundred dollars. Therefore, it is not surprising that transactions are decreasing.

Now, regarding rents. According to ApartmentList's October data, the median rent for the entire city of San Diego was $2,314.

A one-bedroom apartment costs $1,972, while a two-bedroom is $2,472. This represents a decrease of 0.1% from September, essentially remaining flat, but it is up 0.7% from a year ago.

With the national median rent at $1,384, San Diego's rents are 67.2% higher than the national average. This is quite surprising when viewed in numerical terms.

However, other data shows quite different figures. According to Zumper, the median rent for a one-bedroom in San Diego in July was $2,250, placing it among the top 10 most expensive rental cities in the nation.

The nearly $300 difference for the same one-bedroom is due to the different methods of data collection by companies. Whether they reflect the asking prices of newly listed properties or the actual rents of signed leases can lead to varying numbers.

Therefore, when looking at rental prices, it is advisable not to rely solely on one site but to check two or three sources. Most importantly, observing monthly changes from the same source provides a more accurate understanding of trends.

Both sources agree on one point: rents are in a stagnant phase, neither rising significantly nor falling.

Now, let's summarize what these numbers actually mean. For those looking to buy a home, this is a time when there may be some room for negotiation. As transactions decrease, listings tend to stay on the market longer, increasing the likelihood that sellers will adjust their conditions.

However, prices themselves have not decreased. They are still at a high level compared to a year ago, so whether to wait for interest rates to drop further should be judged based on one's financial situation.

For renters, you do not have to immediately agree to unreasonable rent increases upon renewal. Since market rents are stable, it is worth checking comparable listings to have a basis for negotiation.

For those considering investment rental properties, the numbers are somewhat sobering. When calculating with home prices in the $1 million range and interest rates in the 7% range, achieving positive monthly cash flow is not easy.

Having observed the buying and selling of homes by the Korean community in San Diego for many years, I have seen that hasty decisions during such periods often do not lead to good outcomes.

You can check the October home price statistics as soon as they are released by C.A.R. Local media will also summarize the county-level numbers promptly.

It is important to remember that conditions vary by neighborhood. Even if the county average decreases, areas with good school districts often have a shortage of listings, causing prices to hold steady.

If I were currently looking for a home, I would monitor interest rate trends for a few more weeks and check how long listings in my desired neighborhoods stay on the market.

While numbers change every month, developing the habit of looking at transaction volume, interest rates, and rents together will help you not miss significant market trends. Next month, I will summarize again with the official sales statistics for October.