Even though it's mid-November, many are still waiting for the October numbers. To get straight to the point, as of the time of writing, the official transaction statistics for October in Monroe County have not yet been released.

The monthly report from the New York State Association of Realtors (NYSAR) is typically published in late the following month. So today, I will summarize the most recent confirmed data, which includes the September figures and the interest rate trends from October.

First, let's look at the sale prices. According to a report by the Rochester Business Journal citing NYSAR data on October 27, the median sale price in Monroe County for September was $301,000.

In the same month last year, it was $273,000. This represents an increase of over 10% in just one year, which is certainly not a small change.

In May of this year, the same NYSAR report indicated that the price had risen to $308,500, reaching an all-time high. It is noteworthy that the $300,000 mark has been maintained even after the summer peak season.

Looking only within the city limits, the numbers are slightly different. According to Zillow data, the typical home value in the city of Rochester at the end of September was $240,168, which is a 4.7% increase from a year ago.

For the entire Monroe County, the same data shows a value of $285,680. The Zillow index calculates differently from actual transaction medians, so these two numbers should not be directly compared.

However, the trend is the same. Homes in the suburbs are more expensive than those in the city, and both areas are still experiencing price increases.

In the September statistics, what caught my attention the most was the inventory rather than the prices. The inventory for September was 1.2 months' worth, the highest level since 2020.

From the numbers alone, it still appears that listings are scarce. The industry considers a market balanced between sellers and buyers to be around 6 to 6.5 months of inventory.

New listings have also increased. In September, there were 901 new registrations, which is 8.3% more than a year ago and 15% more than in August.

In the past, it was common for multiple offers to come in during a single weekend open house when a home was listed in this area. While it is still a seller's market, I believe there is a bit more breathing room now.

Next, let's discuss interest rates. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.4% at the beginning of October, marking the highest level in nearly three years.

Since then, it has decreased for three consecutive weeks, with a rate of 7.18% reported on November 5. A year ago, the rate was 6.22%, and it had dropped to 5.98% at the end of February this year.

This represents a movement of over 1 percentage point in just a few months. Having observed this market for a long time, such fluctuations within a single year are quite rare.

Therefore, the transactions contracted in October are likely numbers generated by buyers willing to accept higher rates. This is why it is important to look at how prices and transaction volumes moved once the October statistics are released.

Now, let's move on to the discussion for tenants and landlords. The Rochester City Council has voted to apply New York State's Good Cause Eviction Law to the city starting in December 2024.

This law allows local jurisdictions to choose whether to apply state law, so it does not apply to suburban towns outside the city limits. Even within Monroe County, the applicability can vary based on the address.

One of the key points is the criteria for rent increases. According to figures announced this year by the State Division of Housing and Community Renewal (DHCR), the baseline for areas excluding New York City and some downstate counties is 8.15%, which is the sum of the inflation rate of 3.15% plus an additional 5%.

There is a common misconception here. The 8.15% is not an illegal cap that, if exceeded, results in immediate illegality, but rather a benchmark that is presumed to be an unreasonable increase if surpassed.

If a landlord can prove reasons such as increased taxes or repair costs, there may be grounds for dispute. Conversely, tenants can challenge the increase based on this benchmark.

There are also specific exemptions. Conditions such as building size, owner occupancy, and construction date are intertwined, so it is advisable to check with city records or legal counsel to confirm whether your property is subject to this law.

From a tenant's perspective, let's outline what to check now. First, verify whether your home address is within the city limits.

Next, calculate whether the increase rate on your renewal notice exceeds 8.15%. If it does, ask the landlord for justification and keep a written record.

Landlords also have responsibilities. It is advisable to prepare documentation for tax, insurance, and repair costs before determining the increase rate for next year's renewal.

During a time when listings are gradually increasing, it may be more detrimental to lose a good tenant due to unreasonable increases. A vacancy of a month or two can negate several years' worth of increases.

For those looking to buy, I would like to say this: If inventory is increasing and interest rates are decreasing, there may be room for negotiation during the slow season at the end of the year.

However, since there is also a possibility that interest rates may rise again, please do not rush based solely on one month's numbers. I would wait for the official October statistics to come out and then check the inventory trends before making a move.

Once the October figures are released, I will provide a follow-up summary. I recommend always checking the sources and the reference month for the numbers.