The first question that comes to mind when looking at properties in the Allston area is whether the current rise in rent will continue. Before answering that, we need to consider some risk factors, particularly the new developments piling up right in front of us.

In the Allston area alone, 166 units are under construction, and an additional 553 units have been approved. Next door in Brighton, nearly 1,000 units are under construction, with over 800 more waiting for approval. Additionally, Harvard's Enterprise Research Campus Phase 1 is set to kick off in 2026, and the first phase of Allston Square, which will consist of about 350 units, is expected to break ground by late 2026 or early 2027. Therefore, we need to consider the current perception of a housing shortage alongside the potential influx of supply in the future.

Looking at the current figures, the median sale price in Allston is around $739,000, and the average time on the market is about 31 days, indicating a competitive environment. For rentals, the baseline in the Allston-Brighton area is $3,344 per month, with reports of one-bedroom units in Lower Allston reaching as high as $4,398. Expanding to the entire Boston area, the average home price is $832,000, which has increased by 0.8% over the past year.

So, is it the right time to buy, or should one wait for the new supply to increase? There is no definitive answer to this question. Given the area's characteristics, with a significant influx of students and young professionals every September, the demand for short-term rentals is unlikely to diminish. However, investors must factor in that the new supply could dampen the pace of rent increases. The ratio of sale prices to rents in Boston is around 18.8, indicating that profitability between renting and buying is in a middle ground without a clear tilt toward either side.

The fact that areas with good MBTA access tend to have steady demand is a positive sign for residents, but even though Massachusetts has a lower property tax rate compared to other states, the high home prices mean that the actual burden can be significant, especially for families coming from California or Texas. Families that prioritize school districts should note that Boston's public school assignment system operates differently from typical zoning, so it's advisable to check the GreatSchools ratings along with the Boston Public Schools assignment regulations.

What criteria should determine whether to rent or buy now? If the intended residence period is short or there is a possibility of moving in the future, there is little reason to rush into buying in a market where the time on the market is short and competition is fierce. Conversely, if one is considering settling for more than five years, it is essential to weigh the benefits of entering the market now before new supply ramps up against waiting for a time when increased supply may enhance negotiating power.

Families coming from out of state often overlook a common aspect. While Massachusetts may appear to have a low nominal property tax rate, the high home prices can lead to actual payments that exceed those in Texas or Florida. Additionally, the rental protection laws in the Boston area are relatively favorable to tenants, so investors should check local ordinances regarding lease termination and rent increases in advance for safety.

The nationwide lock-in effect is also one of the factors behind the shortage of properties in this area. Homeowners who took out loans during the low-interest period are delaying sales, and the fact that most of the new supply consists of rental properties makes it difficult to alleviate the inventory shortage in the sales market.

Choosing to rent and get to know the neighborhood before transitioning to buying can also be a reasonable option in this area. It means that waiting to see when new supply is fully released into the market before making a decision is not too late.

Ultimately, Allston is a market where the risks of new supply and the strengths of steady rental demand coexist. This article does not constitute investment or legal advice, and it is recommended to consult with professionals before making any actual contracts.