Let's consider a tenant in Austin with a two-bedroom lease expiring early next year. When they receive the renewal notice, the first question they might have is, 'Should I just renew, move, or take this opportunity to buy a house?'

To get straight to the point, October rent has remained nearly unchanged. Since the October figures are not yet available, I will compare the published September figures with those from August.

Starting with rent, the estimated median rent for the entire city of Austin in the November report from Apartment List is $1,323.

This is a decrease of $3 from the figure of $1,326 reported last month. The report indicates a change of -0.2% for October.

The one-bedroom rent decreased from $1,174 to $1,172, while the two-bedroom rent went from $1,429 to $1,426. It's a bit embarrassing to even say it has gone down by such a small amount.

Compared to a year ago, it is down by 1.33%. It is also $61 lower than the national median rent of $1,384.

If we broaden the scope to the entire metro area, the median rent is $1,296, with an annual change of -1.2%. According to the same report, the most expensive area is Bee Cave at $1,587, while the cheapest is San Marcos at $1,056.

Georgetown has increased by 5.3% over the past year, while Kyle has decreased by 7.8%. Even within the same region, the direction can vary, so you should look at the number of neighborhoods you might consider moving to.

It's also good to note that different sites report different numbers. Apartments.com reported the average rent for a one-bedroom in Austin as $1,397 based on June data.

Since the month is different and the methods of calculating averages and medians vary, it's not accurate to say one is wrong. It's safest to observe trends from one source and inquire directly with the complexes for actual prices.

In fact, there is a much larger number than $3 for this tenant. It's the move-in promotions.

According to Apartment List data reported by CRE Daily in October, more than half of Austin apartments are offering over a month of free rent. The vacancy rate is 9.0%, which is higher than the national average of 6.8%.

Let's assume you sign a 12-month lease for a two-bedroom at $1,426 and receive one month free. Dividing that by 12 gives an effective reduction of $118.83 per month.

So, I would check the new move-in conditions at nearby complexes as soon as I receive the notice. I would then take that information to the management office of my current place and ask if they can adjust the renewal amount.

However, promotions may only apply to new tenants. Be sure to factor in moving costs before deciding to relocate.

You might be wondering how long this flexibility will last. Matthews' third-quarter report estimates the vacancy rate at 11.8%, but this is calculated differently than the previously mentioned 9.0%, so direct comparison isn't possible.

What's important to note is the trend. According to Matthews' data, the vacancy rate has decreased by 2.48 percentage points compared to a year ago, and the absorption of 6,925 units in the third quarter exceeded the completion of 5,727 units.

The annual completion rate has also dropped from 32,074 units in 2024 to 14,825 units in the last 12 months. While we can't definitively say when the tide will turn, it signals that tenant advantages won't last forever.

Now, regarding home prices. According to the Unlock MLS September report, the median sale price in Austin is $570,958, which is an increase of $10,958 from August's $560,000.

The overall metro area also saw an increase from $412,000 to $421,000, a rise of $9,000. Just looking at the numbers, it appears to be a rebound.

However, the median price in July was $577,000. Over three months, it has fluctuated rather than consistently risen, and the median can also be affected by which homes sold in a given month.

On the contrary, transaction volumes have decreased. Austin saw a drop from 844 transactions in August to 777 in September, while the metro area decreased from 2,501 to 2,223.

Vaike O'Grady from Unlock MLS explained that the recent rise in interest rates has become another obstacle for buyers. The metro area's median price in the third quarter is $420,000, which is 2.3% lower than the same period last year, so I trust this figure more than the one from September.

The negotiation space is also reflected in the numbers. In September, the sale price in Austin was 92.5% of the initial asking price, and the inventory is at 5.4 months.

The median prices by county in September are Travis at $497,400, Williamson at $395,000, and Hays at $399,900. Hays has increased by 10.8% compared to a year ago, but since transactions dropped by 30.5% to 294, I wouldn't place too much significance on that.

When considering a purchase, you should look at the monthly expenses of the home rather than just the median price. The mortgage interest rate should be based on actual quotes from lenders, and property taxes should be verified with the Travis Central Appraisal District for the specific address.

If this tenant might move again in 1-2 years, I would keep renting while taking advantage of the promotions. If I found a place to live long-term, I would negotiate without being tied to the asking price.

Of course, the answer will vary depending on income, down payment size, and moving plans, so it's best to align the numbers with a lender or tax professional.

The September report was released on October 13, so if it follows the same schedule, the October sales figures should come out around mid-month. It wouldn't be too late to check if the trends from August and September continue and make a decision then.