When managing funds in New York, there are times when the market seems to move as if it were "pre-planned."

This refers to instances where significant money moves based on anticipated bets before news breaks.

At first glance, one might think it's just luck, but after experiencing it a few times, you start to feel, "Someone must have known about this beforehand."

Last weekend, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran.

He stated that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, there would be retaliation, and civilian power facilities could also be targeted.

From the market's perspective, this is a war risk. Oil prices rise, and stocks typically shake.

However, on Monday morning at 6:50 AM (New York time), just 15 minutes before Trump's announcement, the trading volume of S&P 500 e-mini futures suddenly explodes.

The important thing is that this time frame is statistically the quietest period according to experts.

At the same time, there is a massive sell-off of WTI crude oil futures.

At 7:05 AM, Trump reverses course. Attack canceled, 5-day delay, hints at negotiations.

Iran denies the negotiations, but the market interprets it as "de-escalation." Stocks rise, and oil prices fall.

The positions align exactly with what was announced 15 minutes prior.

According to estimates from the Financial Times, during that brief period, about $580 million worth of oil futures were traded.

When combined with stock futures, the amount is even larger. This is not at the level of individual traders.

A retail investor cannot stay up at 6:50 AM and think, "I have a strong feeling about this" and execute trades of this magnitude.

This is institutional-level capital. And for institutional capital to move in this direction at this timing, there must be information.

To call it a coincidence is to underestimate the scale and precision of the timing. This is not random; it is deterministic.

In the U.S., using insider information for trading can lead to swift and severe penalties from the SEC.

The SEC is considered a more powerful agency than Congress, known for its quick and strong enforcement.

But what do we call it legally when someone makes millions using information about national security decisions, such as "whether to go to war"?

To be honest, it's ambiguous whether this is clearly illegal under current laws.

A more serious scenario is if the policy decisions themselves are linked to market positions.

If decisions about war or peace are influenced by someone's trading P&L, it may sound far-fetched.

However, anyone who has seen how incentive misalignment can disrupt a system cannot easily dismiss this possibility.

There have been instances in the past where unusual movements were detected in the futures market just before geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Venezuela.

However, this time the level of exposure is different. It's too blatant. It's as if there's no intention to hide it at all.

What does it mean that this is happening repeatedly? It means it has become a system. It's not a one-time mistake; it's a structural issue.

I believe in a small government and a free market. But for a free market to function, there is a prerequisite: fair access to information.

If someone uses state power to monopolize information and profits from it, that is not a free market. That is just an insider club.

There is no law that says Republicans must cover this up.

In fact, if you are a true conservative, you should strongly oppose this "collusion of power and market."

This is not just a matter of strengthening regulatory agencies; it's an issue of fairness and the rule of law.

The market is inherently unfair. Especially during national security-level events, it is even more so.

This incident shows that ordinary investors react to news, while some have already taken positions before the news breaks.

And that "someone" is not just lucky; they know something.

If this system continues to repeat itself and no one is held accountable, the conclusion is clear.

This is a designed structure. And those who suffer in that structure are always the uninformed.

On that morning at 6:50 AM, we do not know who executed those trades.

But what is certain is that those people knew something we did not.

A corrupt government that boasts of 'warrior spirit' or 'lethality' will inevitably have poor warfighting capabilities.

When reflecting on the missteps of this Iran situation, the sordid greed will be recorded as a decisive factor alongside it.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/treason-in-the-futures-markets