From my perspective as someone who has observed the real estate market in San Diego for nearly thirty years, the price increase over the past five years has been steeper and more pronounced than in any previous cycle.

According to Zillow data, the median home value in San Diego was around $655,000 at the beginning of 2021, and by 2026, it has surpassed $1,007,000, confirming an increase of about 54 percent over five years. In comparison, the national average cumulative increase during the same period is around 35 to 45 percent, indicating that San Diego is definitely positioned above that range.

Looking at it year by year, from 2021 to the first half of 2022, prices surged the most, supported by low interest rates. However, from late 2022 to 2023, the impact of rising interest rates led to a significant drop in transactions, causing the upward trend to stall. Then, from 2024 to 2025, a continued supply shortage resulted in a gradual increase, and only recently has the market entered a slight adjustment phase due to the prolonged high interest rates.

Several distinct factors have contributed to the region's consistent strength. A stable base of high-income jobs centered around naval facilities and the biotech and life sciences industries has long supported demand, and the geographical characteristics of the coastal area have structurally limited the supply of new land, which has also played a significant role in driving prices up.

Additionally, in recent years, the influx of people moving from other states and those choosing to settle after retirement has compounded the situation, leading to a recurring trend where supply cannot keep up. However, the fact that prices have dropped slightly by about 2 percent over the past year suggests that buyers are now less willing to bear the burden of high interest rates as they did before.

A balanced perspective seems necessary for the future market outlook, neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. While the structural supply shortage is unlikely to be resolved easily, considering the already high price levels and still elevated interest rates, it is cautiously anticipated that a gradual trend will continue rather than a repeat of the past rapid increases.

For Korean households, given the high entry barriers in San Diego, it seems advisable to plan finances comfortably rather than rush into purchases. Conversely, if there are properties that have been held for a long time, it would be better to assess the long-term demand foundation of the area rather than overly worrying about the recent slight adjustment phase.