The global economy in 2025 is expected to show a gradual expansion due to the recovery of economies in Europe, Japan, and the UK, despite the growth slowdown in the US and China.

However, the re-election of President Trump and the strengthening of protectionism are increasing uncertainty in the global economy.

Exchange Rate Outlook: Possibility of Continued Weakness of the Korean Won

Professor Kim Dae-jong of Sejong University raised the possibility that the exchange rate of the Korean won could rise to as high as 1,600 won in 2025, emphasizing the need for political stability, expansion of foreign reserves, and the signing of currency swaps between Korea and the US and Japan.

Interest Rate Outlook: Rate Cuts in Major Countries and Dollar Weakness

In 2025, the value of the dollar is expected to show slight weakness due to rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and a reduction in interest rate differentials among major countries. However, the adjustment range is expected to be minimal.

Commodity Market Outlook: Volatility in Energy and Metal Prices

The commodity market in 2025 is expected to be a long-term catalyst for the oil market due to OPEC+'s maintenance of production cuts. However, commodity prices are expected to be highly volatile depending on the global economic situation and changes in supply chains.

Gold Price Outlook: Impact of Inflation and Interest Rate Policies

The price of gold in 2025 may rise due to ongoing inflation concerns, increasing its appeal as a safe asset. However, interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve could exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term.

The global economy is facing increased uncertainty due to growth slowdowns and strengthening protectionism. As volatility in various economic indicators such as exchange rates, interest rates, and the commodity market is expected to rise, policymakers and businesses need to respond cautiously.