Since the pandemic, most stories surrounding San Francisco have been dominated by negative news, but a closer look at recent statistics reveals points that cannot be explained by a simple narrative of decline.

The population of San Francisco experienced a significant net outflow between 2020 and 2022 due to the rise of remote work and high living costs. However, this decline seems to be stabilizing, and recent population estimates suggest a gradual recovery or stagnation phase. Nevertheless, the general consensus is that it is still too early to say that the population has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

In terms of industrial foundations, the reinvestment by AI-related startups and big tech companies is a notable change. Many AI companies, including OpenAI, are expanding their office spaces in downtown San Francisco, bringing some warmth back to an office market that once saw soaring vacancy rates. However, it is important to note that this recovery is concentrated in certain areas of the city and has not spread evenly across the entire urban landscape.

The unemployment rate is around 4%, similar to the California average, and income levels, particularly in high-paying tech jobs, remain among the highest in the U.S. However, the ongoing vacancies in commercial real estate and the closure of retail stores have led to a relative contraction in service sector jobs.

Infrastructure investments include tax incentives for downtown revitalization, increased budgets for public safety, and public transportation projects like the Central Subway line extension. The effectiveness of urban revitalization policies in conjunction with AI industry reinvestment is expected to be a key variable in the coming years.

According to urban economic analyses from the Brookings Institution and Moody's, San Francisco is still regarded as a hub for innovative industries, but there is a cautious view that the growth trajectory may vary depending on the recovery of commercial real estate and the resolution of public safety and housing cost issues.

For Korean households, there is still demand for rentals aimed at high-income tech workers, but the high prices of homes create significant barriers to entry. It is essential to consider the possibility of an initial rebound in prices while also recognizing that risks stemming from commercial real estate have not been completely resolved.

In summary, San Francisco has secured a new growth axis in the AI industry, but it seems that more time is needed for this growth to lead to a stable recovery for the entire city. For investors who can tolerate short-term volatility, this may present an opportunity, but for those prioritizing stability for residential purposes, a cautious approach is required in this market.

In fact, traditional affluent areas like North Beach and Pacific Heights have maintained stable prices without significant fluctuations, while the condo market near downtown still has listings that have not recovered to pre-pandemic peaks, highlighting clear regional disparities. If you are considering a purchase, it would be practically helpful to differentiate between areas where the recovery of commercial districts is relatively fast and those where it is not.