When will the joys of 2022 return...

Hello. To our fellow residents living fiercely day by day for their families in Anchorage. The new year of 2026 has arrived.

Last year's dividend was reduced to just a thousand dollars, leading many to express their frustration, saying they felt like they were going to explode.

It is understandable that the more families there are struggling together here in Anchorage, the more the dividend becomes a concern.

However, there have been many anxious discussions about whether the Alaska PFD will continue in the future.

As of January 2026, the overall trend suggests that the outlook for the PFD remains uncertain.

Let's summarize the key factors that will influence the direction of the PFD, which is directly related to our lives.

The first is the progress of political agreements.

In the past, the governor and the state legislature have repeatedly clashed over the distribution ratio of the dividend, debating whether it should be 75 to 25 or 50 to 50. After the budget battles of 2025, a certain level of realistic consensus has formed within the legislature, and as of 2026, the 50 to 50 formula is being discussed as the most viable alternative. If this method is solidified into law, future dividends are likely to be relatively stable, maintaining around $2,000 to $2,500. While political battles will still impact our wallets, having clear standards will greatly assist in household planning.

The second is the trend in the energy market.

There are cautious signs of recovery in the oil industry, which is the backbone of Alaska's economy. With new oil field development projects in the North Slope region becoming visible, there is a possibility of a slight rebound in production after 2026. Additionally, improvements in extraction technology are increasing the efficiency of existing oil fields. If international oil prices remain around $70 to $80 per barrel, this could support the lower end of the permanent fund's revenue. This is a crucial foundation for the recovery of the PFD.

The third is the performance of the permanent fund's asset management.

The PFD is paid not only from oil revenues but also from profits earned by investing those revenues in stocks, real estate, and various assets. After the financial market turmoil of early 2024 and 2025, the global market is entering a stabilization phase as of 2026, leading to gradual improvements in fund management performance. In particular, the permanent fund corporation is diversifying its portfolio with energy transition technologies and emerging market real estate, and as these results accumulate, a relatively stable dividend structure can be created despite fluctuations in oil revenues.

Considering all these factors, it seems likely that the PFD after 2026 will be determined at a level improved from the $1,000 of 2025, likely between $1,800 and $2,300. I want to make it clear that this is my personal opinion.

Furthermore, it will be realistically difficult to expect levels exceeding $3,000 every year like in 2022. While the worst phase has passed, we have not completely returned to the jackpot days of the past.

At this point, the most important thing is to adopt an attitude of not having expectations. Rather than being distracted by the difference of a thousand dollars in dividend money, focusing on enhancing one's own capabilities is a much more stable choice. 

Alaska's winters are long and harsh, but spring will eventually come. The PFD may seem shrouded in fog right now, but looking at the state government's asset size and the trends in the energy market, it is clear that it is a sustainable system in the long run.

In 2026, rather than worrying about the dividend notice, I hope everyone can maintain their health and develop their expertise in their respective fields. For us who have endured the cold of Anchorage, the dividend is just a small seasoning in life.

I sincerely wish everyone success in 2026 and that your homes are filled with peace and health.