The geographical limitations of being an island fundamentally differentiate the Honolulu housing market from other U.S. cities. At the beginning of 2021, the median home price in Honolulu was around $660,000, and as of 2026, it is estimated to be around $790,000. This represents a cumulative increase of about 20% over five years.

Considering that the national average cumulative increase over five years is discussed in the range of 35-45%, Honolulu's 20% is relatively low. Given that it has already been at one of the highest price levels in the nation for the past five years, it is important to note that while the rate of increase has been modest, the absolute price burden remains significant.

Year by year, from 2021 to the first half of 2022, there was a gradual increase under a low-interest rate environment, but after the interest rate hikes in the second half of 2022, prices stagnated or saw slight adjustments for a while. After 2024, a very gradual upward trend is expected to emerge.

Oahu has an absolute limitation on developable land, making new supply structurally difficult. This factor supports prices in the long term, but at the same time, the already high price levels limit additional upward potential. The employment base centered around tourism and military bases is stable, but it does not create explosive population influxes.

In a high-interest rate environment, the already high price levels have significantly dampened buyer sentiment. The burden of mortgage repayments is felt much more acutely in this market than in other areas, leading to a clear decline in transaction volume.

For Korean households, Honolulu has long been a preferred area for settlement for residential purposes. However, given the very high absolute prices, it seems more reasonable to approach the market cautiously based on actual living needs rather than for investment purposes.

Looking ahead cautiously, the structural factor of supply constraints is unlikely to change, suggesting that a gradual trend will continue rather than a sharp decline. However, short-term fluctuations may still occur depending on interest rates and the tourism economy.

In summary, while Honolulu has shown a lower rate of increase compared to the national average, it is important to understand that this is due to starting from an already high price level. If planning to reside there, it seems advisable to establish a long-term financial plan and approach the market accordingly.