Looking back at the Phoenix real estate market over the past five years, it has been a period marked by distinct cycles of growth and adjustment. As of January 2021, the average home value in Phoenix was around $332,000, and by the first half of 2026, it is estimated to be around $411,000. This represents an approximate increase of 24%, which may seem modest at first glance, but the actual trends have been much more volatile.

From 2021 to mid-2022, Phoenix was one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. With the rise of remote work, an influx of people from high-cost areas like California drove home prices up nearly 40% in just a year and a half. At one point, the median price even exceeded $460,000.

However, the situation changed in the second half of 2022 when the Federal Reserve began its rapid interest rate hikes. As mortgage rates climbed to around 7%, buyer sentiment sharply declined, and Phoenix was noted as one of the cities with significant price adjustments nationwide. From 2023 to the first half of 2026, a gradual decline and stabilization are expected, with a recent 1-year decrease of 2.3%.

During the same period, the national average home price is estimated to have risen by approximately 35-45%, but Phoenix experienced both sharp increases and decreases, resulting in a net increase rate of only 24%, which is lower than the national average. This contrasts with other Sun Belt cities that continue to maintain cumulative increases of over 50%.

The background for both the increases and adjustments is relatively clear. Investments in Arizona's semiconductor industry and the expansion of data centers have steadily broadened the employment base, while the relatively lower cost of living compared to California continues to stimulate migration demand. On the other hand, the rapid increase in new supply post-pandemic and ongoing interest rate burdens are cited as primary causes of price adjustments.

Future prospects should be approached cautiously. If interest rates stabilize, even slightly, there may be a gradual recovery in buyer sentiment; however, due to the active nature of new housing supply in the area, a sharp rebound is less likely, with expectations leaning towards stabilization or gradual recovery.

For Korean households, there may be an opportunity to leverage the current adjustment phase as a buying opportunity. However, a careful approach considering rental yields, school districts, and future resale potential is necessary. If already holding property, it may be wiser to monitor market stability rather than rush to sell.

The above figures are estimates based on public data from sources like Zillow and FRED, referencing the specified points in time (January 2021, first half of 2026), and actual prices for individual listings may vary based on location and condition.