These days, when Tesla's stock price comes up, everyone talks about technology and the electric vehicle market, but I sometimes think about this.

If the day comes when Tesla truly collapses, I believe the reason is much more likely to be people rather than technology. This is especially true for Elon Musk himself. The words of a successful entrepreneur are sometimes treated like prophecies, but on the other hand, over time, they can become something like, "Wow, that was a bit much," and turn into clickbait.

In my personal opinion, Musk, who is recognized as a top figure in the economy, embodies both of these aspects.

Looking at his past statements, they are almost at the level of 'the boy who cried wolf.' Since 2014, the repeated claim of "We will have full self-driving next year" has become a running joke among investors. In 2019, he said that a million robo-taxis would be roaming the streets by 2020, yet here we are in 2026 still holding onto the steering wheel.

And ten years ago, in 2016, he claimed that by 2025, there would be people living on Mars. Mars is still only visible through telescopes. At the beginning of the pandemic, he said, "The coronavirus will be gone by the end of April." At this point, it seems faster to find what he got right than what he got wrong. As these statements accumulate, an invisible burden known as the 'Musk Risk' has emerged in the market. While his words can boost stock prices, they are simultaneously eroding trust.

I think for fun about what the decisive factor would be if Tesla were to truly fail.

The first is the collapse of the self-driving myth. The core of Tesla's corporate value is not the car factory but the software. However, if FSD ultimately fails to achieve fully autonomous driving or is deemed to have critical flaws by regulatory authorities, Tesla suddenly becomes just an electric vehicle company. The moment investors who believed it was a software company realize, "Oh, this is just a hardware company?" the stock price could collapse like a sandcastle.

The second is owner risk. It's Musk's mouth. His political statements on X, aggressive tone, and enjoyment of controversy are going in the opposite direction of Tesla's main customer base. People who once liked the image of environmental and technological progress are starting to turn away one by one. The boycott movements that have emerged in some parts of Europe are a signal of this. The owner, who was once the best ambassador, becomes the biggest risk to the brand, and the company can shake more quickly than expected.

The third is the pressure from price wars and quality controversies. In the past, there were almost no alternatives to Tesla. That is no longer the case. Hyundai, BYD, and German brands have all caught up. Additionally, the recent news that the Model Y ranked last in a new car reliability survey in Germany is quite symbolic. Advanced technology is great, but if it leaks rainwater, has poor finishing, and continues to have suspension issues, consumers will ultimately turn away. Technology is impressive, but in the end, a car is something that people drive.

Ultimately, what may determine Tesla's future is trust rather than technology.

It's important for entrepreneurs to talk about the future, but the false prophecies that accumulate in the process will eventually come back as a boomerang. If Tesla were to collapse, it would likely not be due to a lack of technology, but rather because of the public's cynicism that "I can no longer trust what Musk says."

Will Musk send Tesla to Mars, or will he send it to the back of history?

One thing is certain: it seems that his mouth will never have a quiet day ahead.