These days, people are saying that ChatGPT is the "biggest shock since the internet."

It seems that similar reactions occurred when AOL open chat rooms first appeared in the late 1990s.

At that time, people were excited, saying, "The world has changed; anyone can talk from anywhere," but that excitement didn't last as long as expected.

This makes me wonder whether the innovation that ChatGPT shows will last or if it will fade away like AOL chat did.

First, let's look at why AOL chat rooms were fresh. Until then, the experience of connecting people on the internet was slow and limited, like email and bulletin boards. But with AOL, you could log in and instantly chat with strangers. It felt like endless possibilities had opened up, giving a sense of direct connection to the world through 24-hour chatting.

However, the problem was that it was structurally unsustainable. Due to strong anonymity, spam, insults, and rude conversations overflowed, and people quickly became fatigued. Additionally, the technological infrastructure at that time had limitations, with insufficient connection speeds and poor management of spammers and rude users. Ultimately, people began to feel more discomfort than fun, and as various other chat spaces emerged, AOL chat rooms were quickly forgotten.

Now, let's move on to ChatGPT. The shock of ChatGPT's conversation feature is much greater and more complex than during the AOL era.

This is because it is not just a conversation with a person but a space for conversing with artificial intelligence. In other words, the fact that the counterpart is an always-available intelligent partner amplifies the freshness.

Moreover, ChatGPT provides context understanding, language flexibility, and emotionally mixed responses, creating a new standard of "human-like conversation."

As a programmer, I am amazed by the surprisingly natural responses I receive when asking for code reviews, inquiring about new language syntax, or even just chatting. Of course, I also encounter a lot of nonsense and absurd content. You have to filter through it, haha.

However, the shadow of AOL looms here as well. Just like back then, fresh shocks turn into the ordinary over time. Right now, people are amazed by ChatGPT, saying, "Wow, is this possible?" but in a few years, that reaction will inevitably cool to, "This is just normal."

The freshness of technology is temporary. Also, regarding the revenue structure, while ChatGPT currently has free and paid versions, if the service provider's revenue model does not stabilize, the excitement may fade, and usability may decline, just like AOL.

Above all, the rapid rise in people's expectations is a risk.

To maintain the impact of "conversing like a person," it must continue to evolve to be smarter, safer, and more reliable, and if the pace does not meet expectations, user attrition will occur.

Nevertheless, I believe the likelihood of ChatGPT following the path of AOL chat rooms is low.

There are three reasons. First, the technological infrastructure has advanced to an incomparable level. Now, with cloud servers, high-speed internet, and big data learning models backing it, we do not easily encounter the technological limitations faced during the AOL era.

Second, ChatGPT provides practical utility beyond simple entertainment, offering value in work, learning, creation, and business. In other words, it has moved from being "fun" to being something that is "essential for me."

Third, there is ecosystem scalability. It connects with other services through APIs and integrates into apps or websites, creating value beyond chatting. While AOL was confined within AOL, ChatGPT can spread anywhere in the world, which is a significant difference.

Ultimately, what matters is how continuously satisfying the user experience can be.

While AOL chat rooms remained at the level of quickly tiring fun, ChatGPT has the opportunity to capture both productivity and creativity. However, given the high expectations, disappointment can also come quickly, so how fast it evolves will be crucial.

I believe we are now in a new AOL era for developers.

Unlike the past, this time there is a solid foundation for the platform to survive for a long time, but there is also a warning that if we become complacent, it could again be short-lived. Watching whether ChatGPT can establish itself as an essential tool beyond a mere trend during the process of fresh shock solidifying into the ordinary is an interesting matter.

However, the fact remains that technological innovation will collapse if it fails to meet people's expectations and satisfaction.

In any case, I can pay $20 a month for ChatGPT now, but I can't pay $200, so I hope it continues to deliver value for the $20.