The stock market outlook is truly a perplexing matter.

Sometimes when looking at stocks, you feel like "this time it's certain," and other times you think, "this is risky," but the results often flow in the opposite direction, right?

So people always cling to the news, analyze it, and listen closely to the words of securities analysts.

However, this time JP Morgan has issued an interesting warning.

They suggest that the possibility of an interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve in September is almost certain, but this could actually serve as a 'negative catalyst' for the market.

What this means is that usually, news of an interest rate cut is thought to be a positive factor for rising stock prices.

But JP Morgan pointed out that it could become a "sell the news" event after the material dissipates. In other words, the moment the long-awaited interest rate cut is announced, investors might think, "Now it's time to sell."

According to Andrew Tyler, head of JP Morgan Global Market Intelligence, if a 25bp (0.25%) cut is implemented, investors may switch to a selling trend as they reassess macroeconomic indicators, the Fed's stance, and excessive market positions.

If the demand for corporate stock buybacks decreases and retail investor participation slows, the forces that have supported the market so far could be shaken.

But ironically, the market itself is still showing strength.

Just looking at the past month, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have all overcome volatility and surged close to all-time highs.

So, just based on the atmosphere, it seems like "Wow, isn't this a real bull market?" But JP Morgan warns that within that, the seeds of risk are growing.

What's even more interesting is that according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate cut being implemented on September 17 is reflected at a staggering 100%.

At this point, it feels like "The interest rate cut is confirmed," but the market has likely already reflected that expectation in stock prices.

Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, also hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut during the Jackson Hole meeting, so investors have been riding that wave of expectation. The problem is that when that event actually occurs, the momentum to push prices higher may disappear.

Additionally, David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, has expressed similar concerns. He stated that an interest rate cut is not a panacea that solves everything.

Rather, it could reduce interest income for retirees, increase the number of people delaying loans, and prolong economic uncertainty. In today's aging society, a decrease in retirees' living expenses could be a problem that affects society as a whole.

What I felt while watching this news is this.

Sitting by the beach and watching the waves, just as a big wave can suddenly rush in from an apparently calm sea, the current stock market seems peaceful on the surface, but there appears to be quite a bit of turbulent energy hidden beneath.

The event of an interest rate cut is approaching, and it seems everyone is preparing to cheer, but when that moment comes, it could flow in another direction.

Ultimately, the stock market outlook is something that is 'hard to understand.'

Even experts' analyses do not provide definitive answers, and all we can do is continuously assess the situation and respond flexibly.

Especially in a situation like now, where we are hitting all-time highs, I feel we need to be even more cautious.