Last weekend, I picked up a bag of coffee beans I usually buy at the grocery store and checked the price again. The brand and size were the same, but the number I remembered was quite different.

Coffee is almost the only indulgence we have at home that we consume daily. Having a cup in the morning and another in the afternoon has become a sort of ritual, so when prices go up, I feel it immediately.

So, I came home and started looking for data. Feeling that something is expensive and knowing how much it has actually increased are two different things. I need to check the numbers to determine the right response.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the national average retail price for 100% ground coffee per pound every month. In September 2024, it was $6.47.

In September of this year, the same item was $9.33. This means it has risen about 44% over two years, and honestly, I checked my calculator twice.

There have been claims that prices have increased by 55% over the past two years, but that figure has not been confirmed based on retail prices. It's more accurate to say that the actual amount consumers are paying has risen in the mid-40% range.

Of course, a mid-40% increase is not a small number. Compared to the general inflation rate during the same period, it is several times higher.

This is different from items like eggs that spike and then quickly return to normal. Coffee has steadily increased, like climbing stairs, which makes it feel heavier.

The trends are even more interesting. In January of this year, it peaked at $9.37, the highest recorded price in this statistic, and in April, it reached $9.72.

Since then, it has come down a bit and has been hovering around $9.30 from July to September. The sharp rise has stopped, but it hasn't come down either, creating a sort of plateau.

The causes were largely twofold. One was the weather issues in Brazil, such as drought and frost, which reduced the supply of green coffee beans.

The other was tariffs. At one point last year, high tariffs were imposed on Brazilian coffee, but due to an executive order in November 2025, coffee became an exempt item.

The futures market has already shifted direction. New York Arabica futures were around $3.88 per pound in mid-October last year, but by early October this year, they were at $2.95.

There are also forecasts that Brazil is expecting a record harvest this year. However, recent heavy rains have delayed harvesting and drying, so it's not all optimistic.

Moreover, certified stocks on the exchange dropped to their lowest levels in decades last September and have only slightly recovered. It cannot be said that supply-side uncertainties have been completely resolved.

The problem is that even if futures prices drop, the prices on grocery store shelves take a long time to follow suit. It's a classic case of the "rockets and feathers" phenomenon, where prices rise quickly but fall slowly.

Personally, I find this quite frustrating. When costs go down, the benefits should also fairly return to consumers for the market to remain healthy.

So, is home brewing now a loss? I calculated it myself. If I use 15 grams of beans per cup, one pound yields about 30 cups.

Dividing by the current average price, the cost per cup of beans is about 31 cents. Two years ago, it was around 22 cents, so it has increased by nearly 10 cents per cup.

If I have two cups a day, that's 60 cups a month, and the cost of beans is just over $18. This means I'm spending about $6 more a month compared to two years ago.

In percentage terms, it sounds surprising, but in absolute terms, it's manageable. The money spent on a latte at a café could brew over ten cups at home.

Adding milk or syrup doesn't change the situation much. In fact, café menu prices often include rent and labor costs, so they tend to rise more significantly than the increase in bean prices.

The conclusion is simple. Even if bean prices rise, home brewing remains overwhelmingly cheaper, and there are even more ways to save at home.

First, use a scale. If you scoop with a spoon, you might use more than you think, and the taste can vary each time. Since I started measuring, I've definitely been able to stretch a bag longer.

Second, buy whole beans in bulk and freeze them. Wholesale store bulk bags often have a lower price per pound, and sealing and freezing them reduces flavor loss. The trick is to only take out a week's worth at a time.

Third, consider trying store brands. If you drink drip coffee daily, you might not notice the difference when tasting it blind.

Fourth, be sure to check the price per gram for capsule coffee. The convenience comes at a cost, and with bean prices rising now, that difference appears even larger.

Fifth, look at the unit price on the price tag. Shrinkflation, where bag sizes subtly decrease, isn't easily noticeable if you only look at the total amount.

Finally, it's good to remember the sale cycles. Coffee is a storable item, so buying two or three bags when it's on sale is a good strategy. However, if you stock up too much, you'll end up drinking stale beans, so about two months' worth is appropriate.

In the coming months, it will be interesting to see how much the drop in futures prices is reflected in retail prices. BLS data comes out every month, so I plan to keep checking. If I see the numbers going down, I'll整理 and share again.

If it were me, I would reduce my café visits a bit now and start measuring and freezing at home. In terms of numbers, home brewing is still the most reasonable choice.