These days, friends around me who are looking to change cars often say something. They mention that in October, the model year changes and dealers have clearance sales, so they wonder if now is the right time to go.

I believed that too, but when I looked into the numbers, it turned out to be more complicated than I thought. So, I organized the verified data properly this time. To sum it up, there's something more important than the calendar.

First, let's talk about the concept of the model year change season. In the past, it was a given that new model years would come in all at once in the fall.

However, according to Edmunds, there's no longer a specific model year change season where the entire industry moves together. Sometimes, the next model year can be released as early as January of that year.

Still, the general trend remains. Edmunds analysts view August and September as the peak times when manufacturers transition to new models.

The incentives for older model years also tend to be the most substantial around that time. So, by October, we're already in the latter part of that trend.

Does that mean October is too late? Not necessarily. If a dealership has leftover older inventory, they might actually want to clear it out even faster.

However, I couldn't find any official data indicating that there are special discounts in October. The numbers vary across blogs, and the sources are unclear, so I decided not to trust that.

Now, let's look at the market atmosphere. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price for new cars in August 2026 was $50,089.

This year, August was the first time the average transaction price exceeded $50,000. I was honestly a bit surprised by the numbers. For reference, the all-time high was $50,612 in December 2025.

The average suggested retail price, or MSRP, is $51,852, which is a 2.2% increase from a year ago. This indicates that car prices are continuously rising.

What's more concerning is the incentives. In August, the average incentive was 6.5% of the transaction price, down from 7.2% in August of last year.

This means manufacturers are offering fewer discounts than last year. If you go in with high expectations based on the term "clearance," you might be disappointed.

What about December? Edmunds explains that December used to be the month with the largest discounts compared to MSRP.

However, since the pandemic, that seasonal pattern hasn't been maintained. Ultimately, relying solely on the calendar is only a partially effective strategy.

Here's an interesting point. Although rare, there are cases where the incentives for new model year vehicles are better than for older ones. This is particularly worth noting if you're considering leasing.

So, you shouldn't assume that older models are automatically cheaper. The best approach is to get quotes for both model years side by side.

Each brand has different circumstances. Brands with a lot of inventory may have more room for discounts, while popular models often don't see price drops even when the model year changes.

Therefore, the first step is to check if there's sufficient inventory of the desired model. Just looking at how many of the same model are listed on dealer websites can give you a sense. If the same car has been sitting for a while, it's a sign there may be room for negotiation.

When living in Texas, one crucial factor to consider is taxes. According to the Texas Comptroller, the sales tax on vehicle sales is 6.25% of the sale price after deducting the trade-in value.

For example, if you trade in a $10,000 vehicle for a $40,000 car, the tax applies to the $30,000. This means the sales tax would be $1,875. If you pay the full $40,000 without a trade-in, the tax would be $2,500, so the difference is quite significant.

If you have a vehicle to trade in, it's beneficial from a tax perspective. Be sure to factor this in when comparing whether to sell separately or trade in.

Here's the order I recommend. Narrow down your desired models to two or three, and get quotes for both the older and newer models. Finally, check the current month's conditions on the manufacturer's incentive page.

And make sure to get quotes that include all taxes and fees in the final amount. Judging solely by the monthly payment can obscure the total cost.

You should also consider the interest rates for financing. Even if you get a slight discount on the car price, a high interest rate can ultimately cost you more. Sometimes, you may have to choose between low-interest financing from the manufacturer and cash rebates, so it's wise to calculate both.

In the DFW area, there are plenty of dealers, making it easier to compare. Don't just decide after looking at one or two places; request quotes from several dealers via email to see the differences.

In summary, the idea of October clearance is half true and half exaggerated. It could be an opportunity if there's leftover older inventory, but it doesn't automatically mean prices will be lower just because it's October.

If it were me, I would prioritize checking inventory and incentives over the calendar. If the desired car has ample inventory and incentives, that's my timing.

If you're not in a hurry, it's not a bad idea to wait until the end of the year. Just make sure to maintain the habit of directly comparing numbers during that time as well.