For those living in California, the term 'Big One' is likely familiar.

This refers to a massive earthquake that could occur along the San Andreas Fault. According to data released by the United States Geological Survey, there is over a 99% chance that a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake will occur in California within the next 30 years.

In particular, the southern San Andreas Fault has not experienced a major earthquake since 1857, indicating that energy has been building up.

If a magnitude 7.9 earthquake were to occur, it is estimated that there would be over 3,000 fatalities, more than 80,000 injuries, and over 500,000 buildings would be partially collapsed. The damage is estimated to exceed $300 billion, which is terrifying to even imagine.

Moreover, when an earthquake strikes, fires can be even more frightening than building collapses. If power lines are down and gas lines burst, fire trucks may not be able to access the area. The fault line runs through California, passing near densely populated areas such as Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego, making these regions particularly vulnerable.

Heading north, the Hayward Fault near San Francisco is also significant. There is a 72% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake occurring here within the next 30 years, with potential damages reaching $200 billion. So how should we prepare? Since predicting earthquakes is difficult, the best course of action is to prepare in advance. It is essential to stock up on emergency supplies such as water, food, and first aid kits, and to establish a communication plan with family members.


It is also advisable to check the structure of your home to ensure it has been retrofitted for seismic safety.

During an earthquake, avoid using elevators and seek shelter under a sturdy table to protect yourself. This 'Big One' is not just a rumor; it is a scientifically plausible and realistic threat.

If you live in or plan to visit California, earthquake preparedness is essential. Experts emphasize that during an earthquake, internet and cell phone networks may be down for days, so families should establish a meeting place or communication method in advance. While we cannot prevent earthquakes, reducing damage relies entirely on our preparedness.

LA faces another risk: tsunamis. The gentle coastline and wide beaches of LA could lead to significant flooding if a large tsunami were to strike. Located in the Pacific's 'Ring of Fire,' LA could be indirectly affected by major underwater earthquakes in places like Alaska, Japan, or Chile.

In fact, a small tsunami reached the LA coast during the 1960 Chilean earthquake. Recent simulations suggest waves could reach up to 10 meters. Fortunately, the city of LA has a tsunami warning system in place and has installed evacuation routes and signs at each beach.


However, low-lying areas like Long Beach, Santa Monica, and Venice Beach are classified as risk zones.

Recently, a system has been implemented that can provide a warning 10 seconds before the 'Big One' strikes. The United States Geological Survey has enhanced the earthquake early warning system called 'Shake Alert,' which now sends alerts to cell phones about 10 seconds before a magnitude 7.8 or greater earthquake begins to shake.

This system was first piloted in LA in 2018 and has now expanded to include the entire western United States, including Oregon and Washington. Robert De Groot, the project manager, stated, "A few seconds can save lives during an earthquake."

Reflecting on the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, where a false alarm led to greater damage, we can understand how crucial these few seconds can be. The new system even incorporates GPS sensors to detect minute ground movements, showcasing remarkable technology.

Now, being able to receive alerts even a few seconds earlier can potentially save lives, marking a significant advancement if it can save even one more person.

Since predicting when and where an earthquake will occur is challenging, being prepared is of utmost importance. Households should stock up on at least three days' worth of drinking water, emergency food, flashlights, radios, and first aid supplies.

Ultimately, the most effective way to reduce earthquake damage is to maintain a consistent preparedness mindset under the recognition that "an earthquake will definitely come."