These days, when I visit my regular stores, the owners are the ones who bring up the topic first. "Lunch customers aren't what they used to be." This isn't just a couple of places, so I couldn't ignore it.

It's been over a year since the federal job cuts began. So, I tried to gather what information I could to see if sales for Korean-owned businesses in Montgomery County have really decreased.

To get straight to the point, there are no official statistics that specifically track sales for Korean businesses. Neither the county nor the state government reports sales by the owner's ethnicity.

So, if you see statements like "sales at Korean stores have decreased by a certain percentage," you should be skeptical. However, looking at the county's economic indicators, the overall trend is quite clear.

There is a quarterly economic report released in May by the county's Economic Development Corporation and Planning Department. It shows that the number of federal jobs in the combined area of Montgomery and Frederick dropped from 54,400 in January 2025 to 41,700 in January 2026.

This is a decrease of 12,700 jobs, or 23.3%. It was noted that this was the steepest decline among the three regions in the Washington metropolitan area, and honestly, I was a bit surprised by this number.

However, this figure is based on job location. It means that someone working in this area might live in Virginia.

When looking at resident data, the county's unemployment rate rose from 2.4% in December 2024 to 3.5% in December 2025. The number of unemployed increased from 13,432 to 19,219, a rise of 43.1%.

During the same period, the labor force shrank by over 11,300 people. The report suggested that some may have retired or left the area in search of jobs.

From a business perspective, this is the most concerning aspect. Unemployed individuals are customers who close their wallets, but those who move away are completely removed from the customer list.

Looking specifically at Rockville, the situation is even more direct. According to data reported to the city council by the city's Economic Development Agency, REDI, one in five workers in Rockville relies on federal jobs or federal budgets.

County Executive Elrich also estimated in December that over 4,000 county residents would lose their jobs due to federal cuts in 2025. He added that the number could be much larger when including contractors and suppliers.

However, the situation is not straightforward when looking at different sectors. Retail jobs in the Montgomery and Frederick area decreased from 59,200 to 57,700, a drop of 2.5% over the year.

In contrast, jobs in accommodation and food services increased from 40,300 to 42,700, a rise of 6.0%. The vacancy rate for retail spaces also decreased from 5.8% to 4.6%.

On the other hand, the office vacancy rate stands at 18.9%, which is significantly higher compared to 11.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019. This is why restaurants located on the first floor of office buildings are particularly struggling.

It would be misleading to say that restaurants are doing fine based on this data. The number of jobs is a matter of how many people a store employs, while how much each table spends is a separate issue.

Data from nearby DC can provide some context. A survey by the Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington (RAMW) found that 72% of mid-priced restaurants reported a decline in sales last summer.

Additionally, 83% of business owners expressed serious concerns about federal job cuts. The number of restaurants that closed in DC reached 92 in 2025, up from 73 the previous year.

This was compounded by a 43-day federal government shutdown last fall. It was entirely expected that families of federal employees who lost their paychecks would cut back on dining out.

From what I've heard about Korean restaurants, the pattern is similar. Weekday lunch gatherings and large takeout orders have been the first to decline, while weekend family customers are holding on better.

Those in catering, office supplies, and cleaning services that supplied federal agencies or contractors are reportedly facing even tougher times. The county council chair has mentioned that delays in payments have caused small businesses to abandon projects and lay off employees.

So, what can be done? If I were a business owner, here's what I would do.

First, reassess your customer base. If lunch crowds were significant, it might be worth shifting focus to dinner family menus or weekend takeout sets.

Second, organize your list of group order customers. Shift your sales targets to sectors that are hiring, such as hospitals, biotech companies, and schools, instead of federal agencies.

Third, check the public-private partnership Mobilize Montgomery and the county's Economic Development Corporation website created last March. They provide webinars, job information, and business support resources.

Fourth, instead of indiscriminately lowering prices, it's better to create a menu item that allows for portion control. This way, customers can save face, and the business can maintain its margins.

Fifth, rather than relying on vague feelings, pull your POS data directly. By comparing day and time data with the same month last year, you can immediately see when customers have dropped off. Solutions can come after that.

I am not against government efficiency itself. However, I think it's unfortunate that such drastic measures are being pushed through without considering the impact on the local economy.

When a government employee loses their job, the coffee shop, lunch spot, and dry cleaner they frequented are also affected. I hope those making policies take these local ripple effects into account.

From the numbers, it appears that the economy of Montgomery County is not collapsing but rather undergoing a transformation. Federal jobs are decreasing while employment in healthcare and restaurants is increasing.

I believe that businesses that first adjust to these changes in customer demographics will survive. Please stop by your local favorite spot again this weekend. That's the most certain way to show support.