Do you remember how the cryptocurrency market surged immediately after Donald Trump successfully reclaimed the presidency in the 2024 U.S. election?

Bitcoin, which had been hovering around $70,000 before the election, broke through $100,000 following the confirmation of his victory, reaching an all-time high. Trump's promise to "make America the global cryptocurrency capital" and the appointment of pro-crypto figures to key government positions fueled market expectations.

In March 2025, the Trump administration announced a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a plan for U.S. digital asset reserves, causing the market to stir once again.

Not only Bitcoin but also major coins like Solana, Cardano, Ripple, and Ethereum saw simultaneous price surges, but shortly after, they exhibited a typical pattern of overheating and correction, plummeting just days later. A single news item about the government holding Bitcoin triggered an explosive rally that quickly reversed.

Of course, not everyone viewed this trend positively.

The global hedge fund Elliott Management warned that "an excessively inflated cryptocurrency market due to policy could lead to a serious bubble." They pointed out that if the market collapses, it could "shock the financial system in unexpected ways."

Market experts also analyzed that while Bitcoin could soar to $200,000 due to policy expectations, there is also a significant risk of falling back to $70,000 if buying pressure subsides. This means that the surge triggered by political events carries strong volatility.

Not only the direct coin market but also cryptocurrency-related stocks and funds exhibited significant volatility. For instance, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is noted as an indicator of institutional Bitcoin investment, showing price fluctuations of nearly 5% in a single day, reflecting market anxiety.

Thus, financial products linked to cryptocurrencies fluctuated according to political news, confirming the simple formula of "policy = price increase."

The second Trump administration created a crypto-friendly atmosphere, triggering a new rally. However, at the same time, the interplay of surges and drops, market overheating, and warning signals clearly demonstrated how sensitive the cryptocurrency market is to political events.

Recently, Bitcoin surged above $120,000 following comments from the Federal Reserve Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium, but experienced a flash crash down to around $110,000 due to large-scale whale selling.

Many experts diagnose that the market is currently forming a box range between $112K and $122K in the short term. There are also forecasts that if this range is broken upward, a rebound above $130K could be possible.

Additionally, the influx of ETF funds from institutional investors and changes in crypto-friendly policies (e.g., Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) positively impact the market, while future interest rate announcements from the Federal Reserve, strong dollar trends, and sudden large-scale sell-offs remain major variables for future price direction.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of adjustment within a strong upward trend, but there is sufficient potential for further increases if the following two conditions are met:

On the other hand, changes in the Fed's interest rate policy, institutional fund outflows, or the next whale selling event could pose risk factors that may trigger another decline.

We must not forget that the cryptocurrency market remains a massive rollercoaster where opportunities and risks coexist.